***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 -6.4 -6.6 -5.7 3.2 5.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 -5.0 -7.7 -6.9 -6.0 3.3 5.8 -3.3 -1.9 -0.6 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 -2.4 -5.0 -6.6 -5.6 3.0 5.5 -0.8 0.4 1.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 -8.5 -9.9 -7.7 -4.5 7.6 10.0 -6.7 -5.3 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 98 2 0 100 -4.7 -6.0 -7.4 -4.5 6.9 9.5 -3.3 -2.1 -1.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 91 9 0 100 -4.9 -5.6 -8.1 -3.3 12.0 14.6 -3.9 -2.9 -1.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 -4.7 -7.3 -6.9 -6.0 3.3 5.9 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 97 3 0 100 -10.3 -11.3 -7.9 -3.8 8.6 12.0 -8.9 -7.8 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 -3.8 -5.4 -7.0 -4.6 6.3 9.3 -2.5 -1.3 -0.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 97 3 0 100 -3.7 -4.8 -7.6 -4.1 8.2 11.3 -2.4 -1.4 -0.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 98 2 0 100 -4.1 -5.5 -7.4 -4.3 6.5 9.4 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 98 2 0 100 -5.1 -6.5 -7.5 -4.3 6.3 9.6 -3.8 -2.7 -1.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 -4.6 -5.9 -7.7 -4.1 7.1 10.1 -3.2 -2.0 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 98 2 0 100 -3.5 -5.3 -7.2 -4.9 4.7 7.3 -2.1 -1.0 0.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 -4.1 -5.4 -7.4 -4.8 7.2 9.6 -2.6 -1.5 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 -3.3 -4.6 -7.7 -4.3 6.8 9.5 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 -4.9 -7.2 -6.8 -5.7 4.4 7.3 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Palic 37000G16 92 8 0 100 -5.7 -6.5 -7.9 -3.7 10.2 13.4 -4.6 -3.5 -2.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 -4.8 -7.6 -6.8 -5.8 3.1 5.6 -3.2 -1.8 -0.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 -9.2 -9.9 -8.5 -2.9 14.6 18.3 -8.0 -6.7 -5.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 -4.2 -6.1 -6.7 -5.1 4.6 7.4 -2.7 -1.5 -0.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 -5.0 -7.1 -6.6 -5.6 4.7 7.5 -3.4 -2.0 -0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 -4.5 -6.9 -6.8 -5.6 2.9 5.4 -3.1 -2.0 -0.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 -4.1 -5.7 -7.2 -4.7 5.7 8.5 -2.8 -1.7 -0.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 -4.3 -5.9 -7.4 -5.1 5.1 7.8 -2.9 -1.8 -0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 -4.0 -5.0 -7.2 -3.8 8.3 11.7 -2.9 -1.9 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 -4.5 -6.9 -7.1 -5.5 3.9 6.6 -2.8 -1.5 -0.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 99 1 0 100 -5.3 -6.4 -7.5 -4.6 7.6 9.9 -3.9 -2.8 -1.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 90 10 0 100 -6.6 -7.3 -8.0 -3.2 12.3 15.5 -5.4 -4.2 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 99 1 0 100 -4.5 -7.3 -6.8 -6.0 2.9 5.4 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Zrenjanin ------------------------------ ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju ------------------------------ ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 na severu i u centralnoj, na jugu 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------