***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 -16.6 -15.6 -14.4 0.0 0.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 -6.5 -16.0 -16.1 -14.7 0.1 0.4 -4.1 -2.1 -0.3 30 Becej 27400G00 100 0 0 100 -3.8 -14.3 -15.4 -14.0 0.0 0.3 -1.6 0.2 1.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -9.5 -16.7 -15.2 -11.8 0.4 1.1 -7.1 -5.2 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 -6.5 -14.1 -15.3 -12.2 0.3 0.8 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 100 0 0 100 -7.4 -13.2 -14.5 -9.3 0.8 1.8 -5.2 -3.4 -1.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 -6.5 -15.9 -16.3 -14.9 0.1 0.4 -4.0 -2.1 -0.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 100 0 0 100 -10.5 -16.0 -15.7 -11.1 0.3 0.7 -8.7 -7.4 -6.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 -5.6 -13.4 -15.2 -12.4 0.2 0.6 -3.3 -1.6 0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 -5.5 -12.4 -15.6 -11.6 0.2 0.7 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 100 0 0 100 -6.4 -14.4 -15.2 -11.9 0.2 0.7 -4.1 -2.2 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 -7.2 -15.0 -15.5 -11.8 0.1 0.5 -5.0 -3.2 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 -7.1 -15.7 -15.5 -11.7 0.2 0.6 -4.7 -2.8 -0.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 -4.8 -12.5 -15.6 -13.1 0.1 0.4 -2.8 -1.2 0.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 -6.5 -13.8 -14.0 -11.6 0.4 1.1 -4.1 -2.1 -0.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 -5.6 -13.1 -15.5 -11.9 0.2 0.7 -3.4 -1.6 0.0 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 -6.1 -13.7 -15.9 -14.5 0.2 0.6 -3.9 -2.2 -0.6 30 Palic 37000G16 100 0 0 100 -7.5 -13.5 -15.7 -11.0 0.4 1.1 -5.5 -3.9 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 100 0 0 100 -6.7 -16.9 -15.8 -14.3 0.1 0.4 -4.2 -2.2 -0.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 100 0 0 100 -12.1 -19.7 -16.1 -10.1 0.6 1.3 -9.3 -7.1 -5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 -5.9 -14.8 -15.3 -13.4 0.1 0.5 -3.6 -1.7 0.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 100 0 0 100 -6.6 -14.7 -15.6 -14.1 0.2 0.8 -4.2 -2.4 -0.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 100 0 0 100 -6.3 -16.3 -15.4 -13.7 0.0 0.3 -4.1 -2.3 -0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 -5.8 -13.2 -15.3 -12.4 0.1 0.5 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 100 0 0 100 -5.9 -13.7 -15.3 -13.0 0.2 0.6 -3.7 -1.9 -0.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 -6.0 -12.6 -14.9 -11.0 0.3 0.9 -4.0 -2.4 -0.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 100 0 0 100 -6.8 -17.8 -15.7 -13.9 0.1 0.4 -3.9 -1.6 0.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 -7.3 -14.4 -14.8 -11.9 0.4 1.1 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 100 0 0 100 -7.5 -13.2 -15.7 -10.4 0.5 1.1 -5.6 -4.0 -2.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 -6.2 -16.5 -16.0 -14.7 0.1 0.4 -3.7 -1.7 0.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------