***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 86 14 0 100 9999.0 -6.8 -6.5 -5.3 8.4 14.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 87 13 0 100 -7.4 -10.7 -7.0 -5.8 6.5 12.8 -5.3 -3.2 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 86 14 0 100 -4.4 -6.7 -6.6 -5.2 8.1 14.2 -2.7 -0.8 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 -10.3 -11.1 -7.2 -3.7 18.0 22.9 -9.0 -7.1 -5.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 -6.7 -7.5 -6.9 -3.6 18.0 23.1 -5.3 -3.4 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 -6.5 -6.6 -7.4 -2.5 26.5 30.4 -5.8 -4.0 -2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 86 14 0 100 -6.6 -9.5 -7.0 -5.7 6.8 13.2 -4.7 -2.7 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 -12.2 -12.5 -6.9 -2.6 24.8 29.8 -11.4 -9.5 -7.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 -6.0 -7.1 -6.6 -3.9 15.9 21.5 -4.6 -2.6 -0.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 64 36 0 100 -5.3 -5.7 -6.8 -3.0 22.5 27.7 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 71 29 0 100 -5.7 -6.3 -6.7 -3.3 19.5 24.6 -4.6 -2.8 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 69 31 0 100 -6.9 -7.7 -6.8 -3.3 19.0 24.5 -5.8 -4.0 -2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 -6.2 -6.7 -7.0 -3.2 20.5 25.3 -5.1 -3.2 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 81 19 0 100 -5.5 -7.0 -7.1 -4.4 12.1 18.8 -4.0 -2.2 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 -5.1 -6.2 -7.2 -4.1 15.7 21.2 -3.9 -2.1 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 -4.8 -5.4 -7.0 -3.3 20.0 24.8 -3.8 -2.2 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 85 15 0 100 -6.6 -9.1 -6.9 -5.5 7.9 14.2 -4.8 -2.9 -1.1 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 -7.2 -7.3 -6.9 -2.5 26.5 31.5 -6.5 -4.7 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 -7.2 -10.4 -7.0 -5.7 6.4 12.7 -5.2 -3.1 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -7.0 -9.4 -7.2 -1.3 37.7 40.6 -10.1 -7.9 -5.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 81 19 0 100 -6.5 -8.2 -6.5 -4.5 12.1 17.9 -4.9 -2.9 -1.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 -7.1 -9.5 -6.8 -5.4 8.1 14.4 -5.1 -3.1 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 86 14 0 100 -6.9 -9.6 -7.1 -5.5 6.9 13.3 -5.1 -3.1 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 -6.2 -7.3 -6.8 -3.9 15.6 21.7 -4.9 -3.0 -1.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 -6.4 -7.8 -7.2 -4.4 13.0 18.8 -4.9 -2.9 -1.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 -5.5 -6.0 -6.5 -3.0 21.4 26.6 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 85 15 0 100 -6.9 -9.1 -7.0 -5.0 9.8 16.0 -4.9 -2.7 -0.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 -6.8 -7.6 -7.1 -3.8 17.9 22.8 -5.6 -3.8 -2.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 -8.2 -7.9 -6.8 -1.7 32.9 36.7 -7.9 -5.9 -4.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 87 13 0 100 -6.6 -9.6 -6.9 -5.7 6.5 12.8 -4.6 -2.6 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------