***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 -3.6 -3.0 -2.1 31.0 36.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 -1.1 -3.9 -3.2 -2.2 30.1 35.7 -3.6 -1.8 -0.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 1.2 -1.2 -3.2 -2.0 31.4 35.9 -1.0 0.6 2.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 -4.5 -6.8 -4.9 -1.6 35.4 38.4 -7.1 -5.2 -3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 -1.5 -3.1 -4.4 -1.3 37.8 40.8 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 -2.1 -3.1 -5.5 -0.6 44.4 46.4 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 -3.6 -3.5 -3.2 -2.1 30.2 36.1 -3.2 -1.5 0.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -7.1 -8.7 -5.1 -0.8 42.3 44.9 -9.8 -7.8 -5.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 -0.5 -2.2 -3.9 -1.4 37.5 40.6 -2.7 -1.1 0.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 -0.6 -1.8 -4.7 -1.0 41.1 43.8 -2.5 -1.1 0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 -0.9 -2.4 -4.5 -1.2 38.3 41.1 -2.8 -1.4 -0.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 -1.9 -3.4 -4.6 -1.2 38.8 41.8 -3.9 -2.4 -1.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 -1.3 -2.6 -4.7 -0.9 41.8 44.5 -3.4 -1.8 -0.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 -0.4 -1.8 -3.8 -1.3 37.5 41.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -3.0 -5.1 -2.1 31.2 34.5 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 -0.3 -1.6 -4.8 -1.1 39.4 42.0 -2.2 -0.8 0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 -3.8 -3.5 -3.0 -1.9 32.2 38.0 -3.4 -1.7 -0.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 -2.9 -3.9 -4.9 -0.7 44.0 46.3 -4.8 -3.4 -2.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -3.6 -3.3 -2.1 30.3 35.5 -3.3 -1.6 -0.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 -5.6 -6.1 -5.6 0.3 52.5 53.6 -8.4 -6.4 -4.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 -0.6 -2.8 -3.3 -1.7 34.6 38.5 -3.0 -1.3 0.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 -1.3 -3.6 -2.9 -1.7 33.6 38.7 -3.7 -2.0 -0.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 -1.4 -3.4 -3.4 -2.0 31.4 36.1 -3.2 -1.9 -0.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 -0.9 -2.4 -4.1 -1.4 37.1 40.5 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 -1.0 -3.5 -4.4 -1.9 32.4 36.9 -3.4 -1.7 0.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 -1.1 -2.2 -4.2 -0.6 43.6 46.3 -3.2 -1.6 -0.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 -0.7 -3.9 -3.8 -2.1 31.1 36.2 -3.6 -1.5 0.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 -2.4 -4.2 -4.8 -1.7 34.8 37.5 -4.4 -2.9 -1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 -3.5 -4.4 -5.1 -0.2 48.3 49.9 -6.0 -4.2 -2.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 -0.6 -3.4 -3.2 -2.2 29.9 35.2 -3.1 -1.4 0.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------