***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 -1.7 -1.1 -1.1 36.9 41.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 -2.3 -1.7 -1.3 -1.2 35.8 41.4 -2.0 -0.5 0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 -0.1 0.6 -1.2 -1.1 37.1 41.7 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 -3.0 -5.2 -3.4 -1.1 37.3 41.4 -5.7 -3.8 -2.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 -2.5 -1.7 -3.0 -1.0 38.9 42.6 -2.2 -0.8 0.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 -0.9 -2.2 -4.8 -0.9 39.7 42.7 -2.8 -1.5 -0.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 -2.0 -1.4 -1.3 -1.2 36.4 42.1 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -8.3 -7.2 -3.9 -0.8 41.3 44.7 -8.0 -6.4 -5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 -1.8 -0.7 -2.4 -0.9 40.5 44.2 -1.3 0.1 1.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 -1.6 -0.6 -3.4 -0.8 41.4 44.7 -1.3 0.0 1.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 -2.0 -1.1 -3.2 -1.0 38.7 42.4 -1.6 -0.1 1.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 -2.9 -1.9 -3.1 -0.9 40.3 43.7 -2.6 -1.2 0.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 -2.1 -1.0 -3.6 -0.8 41.4 44.2 -1.8 -0.3 1.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 -1.5 -0.6 -2.4 -1.0 38.7 42.0 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 0.6 -1.4 -3.3 -1.2 36.8 41.4 -1.7 -0.1 1.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 -1.3 -0.4 -3.6 -1.0 39.1 42.2 -0.9 0.5 1.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 -2.3 -1.5 -1.3 -1.1 38.4 43.5 -2.1 -0.4 1.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 -3.6 -2.7 -3.9 -0.7 42.5 45.3 -3.4 -2.1 -0.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 -2.1 -1.6 -1.3 -1.2 35.6 41.0 -1.8 -0.3 1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 -7.8 -5.8 -5.1 -0.3 46.2 48.5 -7.4 -5.3 -3.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 -2.0 -1.1 -1.6 -0.9 39.6 43.4 -1.7 -0.2 1.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 -2.4 -1.7 -1.2 -1.0 38.4 43.1 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 -2.3 -1.7 -1.5 -1.2 35.7 40.5 -2.0 -0.6 0.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -1.3 -2.6 -0.9 39.5 42.9 -1.8 -0.4 0.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 -2.1 -1.5 -2.6 -1.1 37.5 42.3 -1.8 -0.5 0.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 -1.9 -0.8 -3.1 -0.5 44.7 46.7 -1.7 -0.4 0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 -2.1 -1.2 -1.8 -1.1 37.1 42.1 -1.6 -0.1 1.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 -0.8 -2.5 -3.4 -1.1 37.5 41.1 -2.9 -1.4 0.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 -4.6 -3.3 -4.5 -0.6 43.2 45.8 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 -1.8 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 35.4 40.9 -1.6 0.0 1.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------