***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 9999.0 0.7 2.2 -4.1 17.7 20.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 92 8 0 100 0.6 -0.2 1.4 -4.8 13.9 16.6 2.9 5.0 7.0 30 Becej 27400G00 80 20 0 100 1.7 1.1 2.4 -4.1 18.2 21.0 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 -4.4 -4.6 0.8 -3.7 21.6 24.4 -3.0 -1.0 0.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 2.5 2.1 1.7 -3.4 23.5 26.2 3.4 5.5 7.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.6 2.5 0.9 -2.5 28.9 31.7 2.9 4.8 6.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 89 11 0 100 0.3 -0.6 1.5 -4.6 14.2 16.8 2.5 4.6 6.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 -4.9 -4.9 1.6 -2.5 29.1 31.5 -4.5 -2.8 -1.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 2.5 2.2 2.4 -3.3 24.3 27.0 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 3.1 2.9 2.0 -2.7 27.9 30.6 3.6 5.7 7.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.0 2.7 2.0 -3.0 25.7 28.4 3.7 5.9 7.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 2.5 2.5 2.1 -2.8 27.0 29.3 3.3 5.3 7.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.9 3.0 1.6 -2.7 27.1 29.6 3.8 5.8 7.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.9 2.6 2.7 -3.1 25.6 28.8 3.7 5.8 7.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 78 22 0 100 1.5 1.2 0.7 -3.9 20.3 23.1 3.0 5.0 6.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.4 3.1 1.6 -3.0 25.5 28.2 4.2 6.3 8.2 30 Nis 06700G01 89 11 0 100 0.7 0.0 1.4 -4.5 15.3 18.0 2.7 4.7 6.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 5.8 2.7 1.9 -2.3 30.7 33.3 3.0 5.1 6.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 90 10 0 100 0.5 -0.3 1.7 -4.7 14.9 17.8 2.7 5.0 7.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 2.6 0.1 0.3 -1.8 33.8 36.0 0.0 1.9 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.0 1.8 2.5 -3.6 21.7 24.3 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 82 18 0 100 1.2 0.6 1.8 -4.3 17.2 20.3 3.0 5.1 7.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 82 18 0 100 1.1 0.6 2.4 -4.2 18.0 21.0 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 3.1 2.6 2.6 -3.0 25.8 28.8 3.6 5.7 7.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 77 23 0 100 1.4 1.3 1.4 -3.5 21.6 24.1 2.8 4.8 6.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 2.9 2.8 1.6 -2.6 26.9 29.1 3.6 5.6 7.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 82 18 0 100 1.3 1.1 1.8 -3.7 19.5 22.0 3.1 5.2 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 2.0 1.7 0.9 -3.9 21.3 24.2 3.4 5.5 7.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 2.3 -0.6 1.4 -2.0 33.0 35.5 -0.6 1.5 3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 0.5 -0.4 1.7 -4.7 14.3 17.0 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------