***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 3.9 5.3 -2.1 30.9 35.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 3.5 4.3 5.0 -2.2 30.5 35.2 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 4.4 5.3 5.6 -2.0 31.8 36.1 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 -2.0 -1.6 3.1 -2.4 29.0 32.7 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 4.8 5.6 4.1 -2.0 32.4 35.8 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.2 5.4 2.6 -1.6 36.5 39.1 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 3.0 3.9 5.0 -2.1 31.0 35.6 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 -3.5 -2.4 3.6 -1.2 38.9 40.9 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 5.3 6.3 4.9 -1.7 34.9 38.1 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 5.6 6.9 4.2 -1.3 38.0 40.3 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 5.4 6.3 4.2 -1.8 34.5 37.4 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.2 6.2 4.2 -1.4 37.3 39.6 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.4 6.6 3.6 -1.5 36.8 39.3 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.5 7.1 5.5 -1.2 39.5 42.1 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 4.1 4.3 2.9 -2.7 27.2 31.0 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 5.8 6.5 3.7 -1.8 34.1 37.0 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.4 4.3 5.0 -1.9 32.9 37.3 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.1 4.0 -0.9 41.6 43.3 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.4 4.3 5.3 -2.2 31.0 35.5 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 4.7 3.3 2.1 -0.5 44.7 45.9 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.0 5.9 5.3 -1.9 33.2 37.0 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.8 4.8 5.3 -1.8 34.0 38.1 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 4.1 5.1 5.6 -1.9 33.1 37.2 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.4 6.7 5.2 -1.3 38.2 40.8 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 4.2 4.8 3.9 -2.0 31.6 35.3 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 8.9 6.5 3.7 -1.2 38.5 40.8 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 4.4 5.0 4.7 -2.0 31.8 35.8 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.4 4.7 3.1 -2.6 28.4 32.1 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 5.2 3.5 3.3 -0.6 44.0 45.2 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 3.3 4.1 5.2 -2.2 30.0 34.8 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------