***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 8.4 7.8 -0.7 42.7 44.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.8 7.5 -0.8 41.6 44.0 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 7.0 9.2 8.1 -0.7 43.6 45.0 7.7 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 0.1 1.8 5.4 -1.2 38.8 40.8 0.9 3.4 5.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 7.3 9.2 6.4 -0.9 41.9 43.2 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 6.7 8.2 4.2 -1.2 38.2 40.7 7.5 9.7 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.5 7.3 -0.9 41.1 43.6 6.4 8.6 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 -1.4 0.0 5.4 -0.7 43.2 44.4 -1.0 0.7 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.7 10.0 7.3 -0.5 45.3 45.9 8.3 10.6 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 7.6 9.7 6.2 -0.6 44.2 45.1 8.2 10.5 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 7.9 9.8 6.4 -0.7 43.2 44.3 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 7.4 9.2 6.2 -0.7 43.5 44.8 7.9 10.0 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 7.7 9.6 5.4 -1.0 40.5 42.6 8.6 10.8 12.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 7.0 9.6 7.2 -0.6 43.9 45.1 8.0 10.5 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 5.5 7.4 5.4 -1.2 39.0 41.2 6.4 9.1 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 8.2 9.9 5.7 -1.0 40.4 42.3 8.9 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.5 7.2 7.2 -0.8 42.3 44.4 6.0 8.2 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 7.2 9.4 5.5 -0.7 43.3 44.5 8.0 10.3 12.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.0 8.0 7.8 -0.8 42.2 44.4 6.7 9.1 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.9 3.0 -0.9 40.8 42.8 4.0 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 7.3 9.7 7.8 -0.5 44.9 45.7 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 5.9 8.0 7.6 -0.7 43.1 44.9 6.6 9.0 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 62 38 0 100 6.5 8.9 8.0 -0.7 43.1 44.9 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 7.5 10.0 7.1 -0.6 44.2 45.2 8.4 10.7 12.9 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 6.2 8.1 6.2 -0.8 42.1 43.5 6.8 9.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 7.7 9.3 5.4 -0.8 41.4 43.4 8.3 10.3 12.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 6.7 8.5 6.9 -0.8 42.0 43.7 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.9 5.5 -1.3 38.3 40.5 7.0 9.9 12.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 3.5 5.2 4.4 -0.8 42.1 43.6 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 6.3 7.9 7.7 -0.8 41.6 44.0 6.8 9.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------