***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 100 0 0 100 9999.0 0.6 2.2 -5.1 6.1 9.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 100 0 0 100 2.7 0.0 1.4 -5.7 5.0 7.7 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 99 1 0 100 3.7 1.4 2.3 -5.2 6.2 9.4 5.9 7.7 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 100 0 0 100 -2.6 -4.2 0.2 -5.1 7.8 10.3 -0.5 1.2 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 97 3 0 100 3.9 2.2 1.1 -4.8 8.1 11.1 6.0 7.8 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 96 4 0 100 3.8 2.8 0.2 -4.0 10.9 13.6 5.5 7.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 100 0 0 100 2.3 -0.4 1.5 -5.5 5.1 7.9 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 -3.4 -4.3 0.7 -4.1 9.9 13.0 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 4.4 2.8 2.0 -4.6 8.7 12.1 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 4.4 3.0 1.3 -4.4 9.4 12.7 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 97 3 0 100 4.4 2.8 1.3 -4.6 8.5 11.6 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 97 3 0 100 4.2 3.0 1.3 -4.3 9.2 12.3 6.1 7.6 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 98 2 0 100 4.6 3.4 1.0 -4.2 9.4 12.2 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 95 5 0 100 4.1 2.2 2.2 -4.6 8.5 12.0 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 100 0 0 100 2.6 0.9 0.4 -5.2 8.2 10.6 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 98 2 0 100 4.9 3.4 1.0 -4.6 8.6 11.5 6.9 8.5 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 98 2 0 100 2.5 0.4 1.5 -5.2 6.8 9.7 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 95 5 0 100 4.0 2.8 1.0 -4.1 10.1 13.6 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 99 1 0 100 2.5 -0.3 1.7 -5.6 5.3 8.2 4.9 6.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 92 8 0 100 0.9 -0.1 -0.7 -3.5 11.2 14.3 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 4.1 2.3 2.3 -4.8 7.8 11.2 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 2.7 0.7 1.9 -5.1 7.6 10.7 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 3.1 0.6 2.2 -5.3 6.3 9.5 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 97 3 0 100 4.3 2.7 2.0 -4.5 8.6 12.2 6.4 8.2 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 98 2 0 100 3.1 1.4 1.2 -4.6 8.0 11.1 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 96 4 0 100 4.7 3.7 1.1 -3.8 10.4 13.2 6.3 7.7 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 99 1 0 100 3.5 1.6 1.7 -4.8 6.9 10.0 5.6 7.3 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 100 0 0 100 3.0 0.9 0.4 -5.2 7.7 10.2 5.6 7.6 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 0.7 -0.4 0.3 -3.8 10.8 14.2 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 100 0 0 100 2.6 -0.2 1.5 -5.7 4.6 7.4 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------