***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-12.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 38 62 100 9999.0 12.9 12.1 143.5 76.2 67.6 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 10.3 14.6 10.8 163.2 80.4 71.2 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 13.4 19.6 14.2 174.6 82.6 74.6 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 18 82 100 16.9 25.5 20.7 202.9 86.2 79.2 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 16.7 24.3 20.1 199.7 86.2 80.3 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 11.2 14.1 18.6 170.8 81.2 75.9 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 8.4 10.2 9.3 138.8 74.9 65.5 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 21.1 28.2 18.7 175.1 82.3 75.1 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 13.5 19.1 18.0 179.8 83.3 76.8 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 25 75 100 17.4 24.8 19.0 181.6 83.6 77.1 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 17 83 100 15.2 21.8 19.2 196.3 85.5 79.4 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 24 76 100 12.6 16.9 17.8 175.1 82.1 75.3 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 23 77 100 13.5 18.2 19.3 177.6 82.6 77.3 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 16.8 23.6 16.3 174.0 82.5 75.3 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 15.5 27.5 22.8 244.7 89.6 83.1 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 12.5 17.2 19.4 189.5 84.4 79.0 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 10.9 12.7 8.8 138.5 74.8 65.4 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.0 17.1 17.7 165.9 80.9 73.9 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 12.5 18.5 12.2 175.5 82.7 74.0 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 12.8 15.4 17.8 144.4 76.4 68.7 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 15.0 21.2 16.4 176.2 82.9 75.6 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 10.9 14.0 10.8 153.3 78.2 68.7 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 12.2 18.5 14.0 182.7 84.0 75.3 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 26 74 100 16.9 24.1 17.0 180.4 83.4 76.8 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 14.7 20.0 16.6 168.9 80.9 73.4 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 30 70 100 9.7 12.8 18.2 163.8 80.1 71.8 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 13.3 15.4 12.4 136.8 74.4 66.3 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 14 86 100 14.0 22.1 21.6 217.6 87.1 81.1 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 19.7 25.4 17.1 153.6 78.4 71.4 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 10.2 13.9 11.4 161.4 80.1 70.9 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------