***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2012.-19.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 6.3 9.8 89.7 57.3 45.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.2 6.4 10.3 94.9 59.9 49.2 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.6 9.3 10.4 93.5 59.1 47.7 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 12.6 12.1 11.2 84.2 56.1 46.2 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 12.6 13.0 12.1 92.5 59.2 49.7 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.9 6.7 10.6 65.7 47.7 41.2 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 5.7 6.2 10.4 97.3 60.9 50.0 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 18.9 18.2 13.2 84.4 55.5 46.8 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.3 10.3 12.2 94.8 59.6 49.6 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 5.9 11.6 13.1 89.2 56.9 47.7 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.7 9.1 11.3 85.9 57.0 47.8 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 11.0 9.9 11.0 79.3 54.4 46.0 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 11.3 9.8 10.8 73.2 52.4 45.2 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 5.2 11.5 13.1 90.7 57.5 47.4 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.2 9.9 11.7 87.7 59.6 49.9 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.4 7.7 11.0 79.1 55.2 46.9 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 5.8 6.3 9.9 96.8 61.3 50.2 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.0 11.7 15.3 92.5 58.2 49.0 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.5 10.3 92.3 58.7 48.2 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.5 19.9 95.7 60.1 50.9 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.3 11.5 98.6 61.1 49.6 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.9 10.0 90.5 58.3 48.7 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.0 10.7 90.3 57.8 47.3 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.8 10.7 13.0 93.5 58.7 48.5 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 9.8 10.1 12.0 94.6 59.4 48.8 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 8.1 7.0 11.1 71.4 51.5 45.2 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.6 11.0 91.8 57.9 47.3 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 9.6 9.2 11.1 82.0 56.7 47.4 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 19.6 19.8 17.3 94.2 59.0 49.8 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.3 10.1 93.0 59.0 48.3 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------