***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2012.-26.02.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 8.6 10.6 97.4 61.5 50.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 8.0 12.0 115.6 68.5 56.7 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.2 9.6 10.7 96.0 60.3 50.3 3.4 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.4 12.1 92.5 59.5 48.8 3.7 6.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.1 7.3 11.1 86.2 56.2 47.8 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 8.8 8.8 12.8 92.6 59.2 48.7 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.4 8.4 11.7 114.3 68.1 56.6 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 8.2 14.8 12.3 91.4 57.6 49.5 8.0 12.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.6 6.4 10.5 81.8 53.5 46.2 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.2 11.6 85.3 54.6 47.3 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.5 8.0 10.7 88.9 57.3 48.5 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.0 10.9 11.0 93.2 59.3 50.0 4.5 8.3 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.7 10.4 12.1 93.4 59.6 49.8 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 9.5 9.7 12.7 93.4 59.1 50.8 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.6 9.3 12.8 102.8 64.4 50.9 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.5 8.7 11.7 93.4 60.1 50.2 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.6 10.0 11.5 117.2 69.1 57.3 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.3 13.2 86.8 55.2 48.2 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 6.3 8.2 11.9 112.0 67.1 55.7 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 12.5 17.8 97.0 60.0 51.6 5.1 9.2 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.6 6.8 10.2 84.8 55.2 46.7 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 35 65 100 10.1 9.5 11.9 115.7 68.7 57.7 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 5.5 6.4 11.8 103.8 63.8 53.7 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 9.7 9.0 11.7 87.0 55.9 48.6 4.0 7.5 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.1 8.5 12.3 95.9 60.8 50.6 2.7 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.1 9.8 12.8 99.7 62.8 52.9 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 3.1 8.0 11.8 100.3 62.6 51.7 2.8 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.0 8.6 12.2 96.0 61.6 49.6 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.1 14.6 15.0 91.7 57.4 50.0 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.6 8.5 11.7 111.9 67.1 55.2 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------