***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 9999.0 11.1 10.7 112.8 67.5 51.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 4.5 11.9 11.1 112.3 67.2 51.3 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.4 12.1 10.5 106.5 65.4 51.5 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.1 11.1 11.1 96.8 62.3 49.9 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 9.9 11.2 10.8 99.0 63.0 50.1 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.9 7.7 10.3 87.0 57.8 47.3 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.3 11.2 113.4 67.8 52.0 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 15.8 16.7 11.7 96.6 61.3 50.0 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.7 10.7 100.3 63.6 50.8 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.4 11.5 97.8 61.9 50.6 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.5 10.0 94.3 61.1 49.3 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.6 9.2 9.8 91.9 59.9 48.6 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 8.5 8.6 10.4 90.7 58.9 48.3 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.1 17.6 12.6 107.1 65.6 53.3 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.5 10.1 87.1 59.9 48.4 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.3 10.1 92.4 60.1 48.5 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 4.5 11.0 11.0 120.1 69.9 52.5 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.6 13.3 104.2 64.0 52.7 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.2 11.0 110.8 66.8 51.5 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 13.7 17.7 114.4 67.6 54.1 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.6 10.6 104.1 64.6 50.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.3 10.9 116.2 68.8 53.1 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.0 10.4 11.0 108.7 66.2 52.2 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 12.4 11.8 102.9 64.0 52.4 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 3.8 12.0 12.6 111.8 67.0 52.9 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.6 8.6 11.1 92.1 60.0 48.4 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.6 11.0 12.2 115.1 68.1 52.8 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.2 10.0 88.6 59.8 48.1 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 14.2 17.0 15.1 109.7 66.0 53.8 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.4 12.1 11.0 110.7 66.7 51.3 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------