***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2012.-04.03.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 41.8 43.2 108.8 63.2 54.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 34.5 41.4 44.1 117.2 68.7 59.2 21.4 29.8 39.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 28.3 52.5 45.9 113.7 66.7 57.3 28.4 39.4 51.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 47.4 56.3 55.1 114.7 67.2 59.2 30.9 42.2 55.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 46.3 55.3 54.1 115.2 67.6 59.7 30.2 41.3 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 37.5 36.3 52.3 99.2 56.2 51.4 24.0 32.7 42.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 32.1 36.9 42.6 113.7 66.4 57.7 20.3 27.9 36.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 69.0 73.4 55.9 107.9 62.6 56.1 51.7 63.7 76.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 40.3 45.3 51.4 110.8 64.6 56.9 26.3 35.8 46.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 48.3 52.7 55.2 109.4 63.6 56.5 33.4 43.4 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 39.0 45.3 51.3 112.4 65.6 58.9 25.1 34.6 45.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 43.7 46.8 49.6 106.7 61.8 55.9 29.2 38.9 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 43.3 45.7 52.6 105.1 60.6 55.1 28.7 38.6 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 56.6 62.0 54.6 111.2 65.0 56.9 39.8 51.0 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 55.2 59.2 57.3 123.1 71.6 63.9 19.5 33.1 50.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 36.8 41.5 52.1 109.7 63.7 57.7 22.4 32.2 43.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 34.3 40.5 41.2 115.8 67.7 58.9 22.2 30.2 39.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 44.7 48.2 59.5 108.0 62.7 55.5 29.8 39.6 50.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 38.2 45.2 45.3 117.5 69.0 59.4 25.1 33.5 43.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 50.2 54.7 73.2 109.4 63.5 56.1 32.4 43.9 56.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 43.9 50.5 48.7 112.8 66.0 57.5 27.1 38.1 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 35.4 42.0 43.5 115.5 67.6 59.4 23.3 31.6 40.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 34.3 40.3 47.5 115.9 68.1 58.7 22.6 30.3 39.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 50.3 55.3 53.5 111.0 64.8 56.7 35.6 45.4 56.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 44.3 53.2 53.5 114.9 67.5 58.5 25.4 37.3 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 37.5 38.3 53.2 103.2 59.3 53.9 25.4 33.4 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 23.3 42.7 47.4 109.2 63.5 55.3 23.1 33.0 44.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 38.5 49.1 54.9 115.6 67.3 60.3 19.7 31.9 47.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 71.8 77.2 64.5 108.3 62.9 55.8 51.8 65.3 80.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 21.6 43.1 44.1 115.3 67.6 58.1 22.3 31.3 41.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------