***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 2.6 2.0 1.6 -4.8 18.9 21.4 4.4 6.8 9.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 2.4 2.0 1.7 -4.9 19.7 22.1 4.1 6.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 83 17 0 100 3.2 2.6 1.5 -5.5 17.2 19.9 5.2 7.4 9.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 96 4 0 100 -3.6 -5.0 -3.6 -7.2 10.6 13.1 -1.1 1.1 3.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 90 10 0 100 3.0 1.9 -0.7 -6.0 13.3 16.2 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 83 17 0 100 2.9 2.2 -1.1 -4.9 16.3 19.7 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 1.9 1.6 1.7 -4.6 20.4 22.8 3.6 5.8 8.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 84 16 0 100 -3.3 -3.9 -1.0 -5.4 15.4 18.5 -2.1 -0.8 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 3.8 2.8 0.6 -5.7 14.9 17.7 5.7 7.9 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 3.2 2.2 -0.7 -6.0 14.3 17.3 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 89 11 0 100 3.1 2.0 -0.4 -6.2 13.4 16.2 5.3 7.5 9.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 82 18 0 100 3.6 2.7 -0.4 -5.4 15.5 18.6 5.3 7.3 9.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 3.6 3.0 0.6 -4.9 17.9 20.9 5.3 7.4 9.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 87 13 0 100 3.2 2.3 0.4 -6.4 14.9 17.9 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 92 8 0 100 1.5 0.5 -1.6 -6.7 12.9 15.5 3.9 6.2 8.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 88 12 0 100 3.6 2.6 -0.9 -5.9 14.0 17.0 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 79 21 0 100 2.4 2.0 1.4 -4.8 19.2 21.7 3.9 5.9 7.7 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 3.1 2.2 -0.9 -5.7 15.1 18.5 4.9 6.9 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 2.3 1.8 1.7 -5.1 19.4 22.0 4.1 6.4 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 0.7 0.0 -0.9 -4.0 21.0 24.6 1.5 3.4 5.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 3.3 2.4 1.2 -5.8 14.6 17.5 5.4 7.5 9.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 80 20 0 100 2.6 2.2 1.6 -5.0 19.3 21.9 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 78 22 0 100 2.7 2.1 1.6 -5.2 18.9 21.6 4.4 6.8 9.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 3.5 2.5 0.5 -6.1 14.4 17.5 5.7 8.0 10.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 2.5 1.9 0.2 -5.3 16.1 18.8 4.4 6.4 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 4.8 4.2 0.8 -3.3 23.6 26.9 5.3 7.0 8.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 3.2 2.8 1.5 -4.5 18.9 21.6 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 97 3 0 100 1.8 0.2 -2.9 -7.3 10.8 13.4 4.8 7.3 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 74 26 0 100 0.4 -0.4 -0.7 -5.0 17.3 21.0 1.7 3.5 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 2.4 1.9 1.7 -4.8 19.7 22.2 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------