***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 6.5 6.2 -1.2 38.0 42.2 5.8 8.1 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 8.1 5.2 6.1 -1.3 36.5 41.8 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.9 6.2 6.6 -1.2 37.9 42.4 5.5 7.9 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 2.2 -1.4 2.8 -2.1 30.2 35.1 -1.0 1.2 3.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 9.0 6.5 4.8 -1.1 38.9 42.8 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.2 6.3 3.8 -0.7 43.5 45.5 4.9 7.2 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 3.9 4.8 6.1 -1.2 36.8 41.8 4.2 6.6 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 -0.3 -1.6 4.5 -0.4 45.7 47.3 -3.1 -1.1 0.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.3 5.7 -0.9 41.3 44.7 6.1 8.4 10.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.7 5.0 -0.6 44.1 46.3 6.2 8.5 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.4 7.3 5.0 -0.9 41.2 44.4 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 8.9 7.2 5.1 -0.5 44.6 46.6 5.7 7.9 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 9.3 7.9 4.7 -0.3 46.5 47.8 6.1 8.4 10.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.8 7.3 5.9 -1.0 40.7 44.3 6.1 8.6 11.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.3 3.0 -2.5 27.4 32.9 5.1 7.3 9.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 9.6 7.6 4.6 -0.8 41.7 44.7 6.3 8.7 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 7.5 4.9 6.2 -1.2 37.3 42.3 4.3 6.5 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.7 5.2 -0.3 46.7 48.1 5.9 8.2 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 8.2 5.2 6.3 -1.3 37.0 42.1 4.6 7.1 9.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 4.6 4.3 3.6 0.2 52.8 52.2 1.7 3.9 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.3 6.8 6.1 -1.1 39.0 43.1 5.9 8.3 10.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 8.2 5.3 6.3 -1.2 37.4 42.4 4.7 7.1 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.6 5.9 6.6 -1.2 38.2 42.7 5.1 7.6 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.2 5.9 -0.9 41.4 44.7 6.0 8.3 10.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 8.2 5.5 4.5 -1.3 36.8 41.1 5.0 7.3 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 9.0 7.9 4.7 -0.1 49.1 49.7 5.8 8.0 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.5 6.0 5.7 -1.1 38.4 42.5 5.2 7.5 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 4.9 4.9 2.9 -2.2 29.8 34.9 5.4 7.9 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 5.1 4.2 4.7 -0.1 49.1 49.7 2.0 4.3 6.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 7.9 5.1 6.1 -1.3 36.7 41.8 4.5 6.9 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------