***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 5.3 4.9 5.2 -2.3 25.1 29.4 5.8 7.6 9.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 4.1 5.3 -2.3 25.7 30.3 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 5.3 4.8 5.5 -2.5 24.2 28.9 5.9 7.7 9.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 76 24 0 100 -1.7 -2.8 1.1 -3.8 15.0 19.5 -0.5 1.2 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 5.2 4.7 3.5 -2.7 22.0 26.8 6.0 7.8 9.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 5.1 5.1 2.8 -1.9 28.1 32.2 5.5 7.0 8.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.0 3.8 5.3 -2.1 26.6 30.9 4.6 6.4 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 -2.5 -2.5 3.3 -2.0 27.8 31.8 -2.1 -1.0 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 5.7 5.4 4.5 -2.5 24.2 29.1 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 5.7 5.5 3.7 -2.3 25.8 30.2 6.3 8.0 9.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 5.7 5.3 3.8 -2.6 23.5 28.2 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.5 3.8 -2.0 27.5 31.7 6.1 7.6 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 6.2 6.3 4.0 -1.6 30.9 34.4 6.5 8.1 9.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.7 5.3 4.8 -2.5 25.1 30.0 6.3 8.2 10.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 76 24 0 100 3.6 2.4 2.0 -3.9 15.0 20.0 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 6.3 5.9 3.4 -2.4 24.7 29.1 6.9 8.5 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 4.1 3.8 5.2 -2.2 26.3 30.6 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.4 5.5 3.8 -1.9 28.8 33.1 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 4.3 4.0 5.4 -2.4 25.7 30.3 4.9 6.9 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 4.3 2.7 2.7 -1.0 37.2 39.9 2.4 3.7 5.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 5.5 5.0 5.1 -2.6 23.0 27.9 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.5 4.2 5.3 -2.3 26.1 30.8 5.0 6.9 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 4.8 4.5 5.6 -2.3 25.9 30.7 5.4 7.3 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.8 5.5 4.8 -2.4 25.0 29.9 6.4 8.2 9.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 4.6 4.0 3.6 -2.6 22.8 27.3 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 6.1 6.6 3.9 -1.0 36.6 39.2 6.3 7.7 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 5.2 4.8 4.9 -2.1 26.1 30.4 5.6 7.3 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 4.1 2.7 1.5 -3.9 14.9 19.6 5.6 7.6 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 2.0 2.3 3.6 -1.5 32.6 36.3 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 4.4 4.0 5.3 -2.3 25.6 30.1 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------