***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-12.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 8.9 13.2 14.2 182.2 83.7 72.4 2.3 4.4 7.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.1 13.2 11.0 151.0 77.7 64.2 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 14.2 24.2 16.5 212.9 87.8 76.3 3.5 6.9 11.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 7 93 100 18.1 33.4 23.2 263.1 91.9 87.0 3.9 7.6 12.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 17.4 27.8 19.8 227.5 89.5 82.7 4.6 8.1 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 13 87 100 11.9 17.2 18.0 212.4 87.2 81.1 3.7 6.1 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.0 10.2 10.1 138.9 74.8 60.4 2.2 4.4 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 8 92 100 23.5 35.3 21.3 216.4 88.3 83.2 6.0 10.8 17.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 10 90 100 14.8 26.8 20.1 242.6 91.2 83.9 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 19.5 32.3 22.3 229.8 90.0 84.2 4.4 8.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 16.1 28.0 21.3 244.5 91.1 84.9 3.9 7.2 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 14.0 23.5 19.9 234.8 90.1 84.4 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 14.6 23.2 21.2 220.5 88.8 82.7 3.5 6.5 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 18.0 29.8 22.3 216.8 88.2 80.0 4.1 8.1 13.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 16.6 40.8 25.3 354.3 95.8 91.3 3.0 6.3 11.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 9 91 100 13.1 21.9 20.7 238.1 90.2 84.0 3.2 5.9 9.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.0 11.5 9.2 126.9 71.8 55.5 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 14.8 22.7 22.2 216.4 88.6 82.4 4.0 7.1 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 12.3 17.0 12.4 165.5 80.5 68.0 3.2 6.2 10.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 11 89 100 15.2 20.9 23.3 191.5 85.3 80.6 4.0 7.0 11.4 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 16.2 27.6 18.2 223.9 89.1 79.9 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.5 12.4 10.7 137.3 74.6 59.2 3.1 5.9 9.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 12.2 18.6 15.0 186.4 84.1 73.1 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 16 84 100 18.1 31.8 21.1 230.4 90.0 82.1 4.4 8.3 13.7 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 15.1 22.1 16.9 184.6 83.6 75.1 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 12 88 100 11.0 17.1 18.6 213.0 87.4 81.2 2.4 4.7 7.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 14.3 19.7 14.4 172.9 82.0 72.1 3.9 7.4 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 15.0 31.7 23.8 304.0 93.8 89.2 2.8 5.8 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 13 87 100 23.1 36.2 22.8 209.2 87.7 82.0 5.4 10.3 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 10.3 14.4 12.3 168.1 81.0 68.6 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------