***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.02.2017.-19.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 3.4 7.6 9.9 85.3 55.2 42.5 3.4 6.4 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.2 6.9 9.7 98.7 62.1 45.6 1.9 4.3 8.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 3.4 8.4 10.0 86.3 56.0 43.5 3.2 6.7 11.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.7 16.0 14.9 116.6 68.1 55.8 6.5 10.3 15.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.3 11.6 11.0 85.0 55.2 45.7 5.9 10.1 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.0 10.5 85.6 54.4 45.1 4.3 7.2 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 1.9 6.2 9.1 98.0 61.4 43.4 2.0 4.1 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 12.1 18.8 12.4 91.9 57.8 46.7 12.4 16.7 21.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.3 8.4 10.6 80.1 52.3 42.6 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.5 10.7 11.4 83.0 53.9 44.0 5.4 9.6 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 7.8 10.7 81.9 52.4 43.7 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.1 10.2 11.3 89.0 55.8 45.7 5.1 8.8 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.4 8.9 9.9 74.6 49.2 40.4 5.5 9.1 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 12.1 10.4 12.5 84.1 54.3 43.8 4.9 9.1 14.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 13.9 16.9 16.6 143.0 76.0 61.6 3.6 7.2 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.6 6.9 10.0 79.7 51.6 42.5 3.6 6.5 10.7 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.0 6.3 9.0 98.0 61.5 44.9 2.0 4.2 7.4 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 10.8 12.5 86.7 55.5 44.2 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.0 7.9 10.1 95.0 60.3 45.3 2.8 5.6 9.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.8 17.0 98.3 60.8 47.0 5.7 9.7 14.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.9 10.2 81.7 53.5 42.9 3.6 7.0 12.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 3.0 7.7 10.1 98.0 61.7 46.4 2.8 5.3 8.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.9 10.6 89.3 57.6 45.1 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.3 11.7 84.1 54.4 43.7 4.3 8.1 13.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.7 8.8 11.5 86.5 55.3 43.7 3.7 7.4 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.5 12.0 95.0 58.7 48.3 3.9 6.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.9 6.8 10.2 84.0 54.4 41.6 2.9 5.8 10.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 10.2 15.3 14.9 127.1 70.7 57.9 3.3 7.2 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 9.6 19.1 14.4 91.6 57.4 44.8 9.9 15.9 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.6 7.7 9.8 95.9 60.7 44.7 2.6 5.2 9.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------