***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.02.2017.-26.02.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 7.7 9.3 11.9 107.6 65.4 51.7 3.0 5.7 9.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 6.1 7.5 10.1 109.1 66.3 51.7 2.4 4.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 9.2 10.9 11.6 104.4 64.2 51.1 3.4 6.8 11.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.0 12.1 96.4 61.5 50.8 3.7 6.9 11.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.6 11.8 89.0 57.4 48.2 2.9 5.9 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 8.4 8.0 11.9 86.8 56.2 47.3 3.4 6.4 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.4 7.7 9.7 106.2 65.4 51.2 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 14.8 13.5 11.4 83.3 53.8 46.0 8.0 12.4 17.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.6 7.2 12.7 90.9 57.5 47.9 2.9 5.7 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.1 8.4 12.6 86.8 55.3 46.9 4.2 7.2 11.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.4 7.6 10.7 84.2 55.0 46.6 3.5 6.4 10.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.9 9.5 10.4 84.4 54.8 46.0 4.5 8.3 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.3 11.8 85.9 55.8 47.0 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 9.8 9.9 13.6 94.8 59.9 48.5 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 2.4 8.8 11.6 98.6 63.2 50.4 2.0 5.0 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.5 11.0 84.0 55.3 46.7 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 2.5 8.2 9.0 101.4 63.6 49.3 2.3 5.0 8.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 8.3 7.5 13.6 89.1 56.1 47.5 2.9 6.0 10.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 6.4 7.8 10.4 107.7 65.7 51.3 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 11.9 10.2 14.9 82.5 53.2 46.6 5.1 9.2 14.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 7.6 8.3 12.4 97.5 60.8 49.8 2.8 5.6 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.0 9.3 98.7 62.8 48.3 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 5.6 6.4 11.0 102.7 63.6 50.3 2.3 4.3 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 9.9 10.1 13.2 95.9 59.9 48.9 4.0 7.5 12.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.2 9.5 13.1 103.9 63.9 51.5 2.7 5.8 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.8 8.7 11.5 90.7 58.1 47.8 3.9 6.8 10.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.2 8.5 12.3 105.9 64.8 51.9 2.8 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.2 8.2 11.3 92.5 60.1 50.0 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.2 13.2 13.9 86.1 54.4 46.6 6.2 11.6 19.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 6.7 8.4 10.6 109.0 66.3 51.9 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------