***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.0 11.2 111.1 66.5 51.7 3.0 5.8 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.4 11.6 10.1 109.0 66.0 49.9 4.4 7.5 11.6 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 4.5 12.4 11.1 111.2 66.4 50.5 4.2 7.6 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.5 10.3 10.4 91.7 59.6 46.5 4.3 7.7 12.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.9 10.7 11.3 98.4 61.4 47.6 4.7 7.8 12.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.7 7.7 11.3 88.6 57.5 45.9 3.8 6.3 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.2 10.5 9.8 106.5 65.1 49.1 3.9 6.8 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.9 16.2 12.3 95.1 60.0 48.4 7.7 12.6 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 8.7 9.7 12.3 103.2 63.1 48.7 4.0 6.7 10.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.8 10.3 13.0 99.9 61.5 48.4 4.7 7.7 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.4 10.8 95.4 60.3 47.9 3.4 5.6 8.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 4.4 9.1 10.8 92.7 59.4 48.1 4.5 7.2 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.2 8.6 11.8 92.1 59.0 47.8 4.3 6.9 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 5.9 16.1 13.4 103.1 62.7 47.6 5.7 10.8 17.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 3.8 10.7 9.6 91.0 60.3 46.0 3.4 7.4 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 8.0 10.8 91.4 58.8 47.3 3.2 6.1 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.6 10.3 10.3 110.9 67.0 50.2 4.5 7.0 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 4.5 10.0 14.1 101.7 61.9 48.7 4.6 7.5 11.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.9 10.3 109.0 65.8 49.7 4.6 7.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 5.5 11.5 16.7 97.2 60.8 49.6 5.3 8.8 13.2 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 9.8 11.7 11.8 107.7 65.0 49.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.5 10.6 108.0 66.0 49.6 4.8 7.7 11.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 3.6 10.2 10.9 109.2 65.6 49.0 3.7 6.6 10.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.8 12.3 12.8 105.6 63.7 48.5 4.9 8.4 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 9.2 11.3 12.5 107.7 65.2 50.5 3.5 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.2 8.4 11.3 91.3 59.3 47.4 3.3 6.3 10.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.4 10.4 11.9 110.1 66.1 51.8 3.4 6.4 10.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.0 7.6 9.5 86.5 57.8 45.6 2.7 5.7 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 7.0 15.3 15.0 100.6 61.6 49.0 7.0 11.4 17.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.3 11.6 10.1 107.2 65.2 49.8 4.2 7.5 11.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------