***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 02.02.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.02.2017.-05.03.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 35.0 42.5 47.2 116.4 68.3 58.1 20.7 30.0 40.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 33.7 40.2 40.9 114.8 67.0 57.5 21.4 29.8 39.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 44.9 57.0 49.2 121.5 71.4 60.5 28.4 39.4 51.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 60.7 66.5 60.6 133.3 76.6 68.7 30.9 42.2 55.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 46.6 56.0 53.9 116.2 68.3 61.1 30.2 41.3 53.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 36.7 41.0 51.6 109.5 63.6 58.3 24.0 32.7 42.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 31.4 35.6 38.8 110.8 64.5 55.5 20.3 27.9 36.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 40 60 100 78.9 78.2 57.4 115.1 67.8 61.6 51.7 63.7 76.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 40.3 48.9 55.7 117.4 69.3 60.9 26.3 35.8 46.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 56.9 56.8 59.2 116.3 68.8 61.6 33.4 43.4 54.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 48.4 47.7 53.6 116.7 68.7 62.3 25.1 34.6 45.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 52.7 52.0 52.3 116.0 68.3 62.0 29.2 38.9 50.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 42.8 48.7 54.7 110.7 64.6 58.9 28.7 38.6 49.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 56.6 66.3 61.7 117.7 69.8 59.2 39.8 51.0 63.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 61.6 79.9 63.2 153.5 82.0 73.9 19.5 33.1 50.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 45.7 43.9 52.4 113.8 66.7 60.8 22.4 32.2 43.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 34.3 37.5 37.6 108.4 63.0 55.3 22.2 30.2 39.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 43.8 53.0 62.5 115.8 68.8 60.9 29.8 39.6 50.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 37.6 44.4 43.2 116.0 67.8 57.8 25.1 33.5 43.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 48.3 56.5 71.9 111.6 65.6 59.2 32.4 43.9 56.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 42.9 54.4 52.6 118.6 69.9 60.4 27.1 38.1 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 35.7 39.2 40.7 109.1 63.4 55.4 23.3 31.6 40.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 34.0 40.7 47.5 116.9 68.6 58.2 22.6 30.3 39.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 49.9 60.4 58.7 120.1 71.2 61.4 35.6 45.4 56.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 43.2 53.7 54.0 115.7 68.0 59.1 25.4 37.3 51.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 45.0 43.3 53.4 115.1 67.5 61.4 25.4 33.4 42.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 38.2 45.3 48.9 113.7 66.7 57.5 23.1 33.0 44.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 28 72 100 55.7 64.3 59.6 139.2 77.7 70.4 19.7 31.9 47.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 71.0 82.5 66.0 114.6 68.1 60.5 51.8 65.3 80.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 35.6 43.5 42.8 116.6 68.2 58.0 22.3 31.3 41.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------