***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 6 94 100 0.8 2.7 2.7 4.4 91.1 87.4 -2.9 -1.5 -0.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 0.2 2.4 2.2 4.2 88.6 85.6 -4.9 -3.0 -1.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 7 93 100 2.1 4.2 2.3 4.1 90.4 87.2 -2.2 -0.6 0.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 -3.9 -1.6 0.1 4.6 90.4 87.9 -8.4 -6.7 -5.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 7 93 100 -0.4 1.7 0.2 4.6 89.8 87.2 -4.6 -3.0 -1.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 -1.0 0.5 -1.8 4.3 87.1 84.9 -5.1 -3.6 -2.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 7 93 100 0.4 2.3 2.3 4.3 88.4 85.4 -4.4 -2.6 -0.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 -6.2 -4.1 -1.5 4.5 87.6 84.5 -11.0 -9.1 -7.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 8 92 100 0.4 2.3 0.9 4.5 89.3 86.7 -3.7 -2.2 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 11 89 100 0.2 2.1 -0.6 4.6 88.9 85.6 -3.7 -2.2 -0.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 0.1 1.8 -0.3 4.6 88.5 86.0 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 10 90 100 -0.9 0.8 -0.6 4.4 87.3 84.8 -5.3 -3.6 -2.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 10 90 100 0.0 1.8 -0.9 4.3 87.6 85.1 -4.6 -2.8 -1.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 8 92 100 0.5 2.2 0.7 4.2 88.3 85.2 -3.4 -1.9 -0.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 0.7 2.5 0.7 4.3 89.4 87.2 -3.6 -2.0 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 0.6 2.1 -0.6 4.5 88.0 85.8 -3.3 -1.8 -0.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 10 90 100 0.1 1.6 2.0 4.1 86.1 83.5 -4.4 -2.7 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 11 89 100 -1.8 -0.1 -1.2 4.5 88.2 84.4 -5.7 -4.2 -2.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 6 94 100 0.2 2.3 2.2 4.1 89.0 86.0 -4.7 -2.9 -1.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -4.4 -2.7 -3.4 4.0 84.8 80.7 -9.3 -7.3 -5.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 8 92 100 0.3 2.5 1.9 4.4 90.2 87.3 -4.0 -2.4 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 -0.2 1.6 2.0 4.0 86.6 83.9 -4.8 -3.0 -1.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 7 93 100 -0.2 1.6 2.0 4.0 89.0 86.1 -4.5 -2.8 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 0.0 1.7 0.5 4.3 88.7 85.4 -4.0 -2.5 -1.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 6 94 100 0.1 2.7 1.2 4.7 91.5 88.8 -4.4 -2.7 -1.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 -0.1 1.3 -0.9 4.1 85.7 83.6 -4.3 -2.7 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 6 94 100 0.8 3.7 2.0 4.6 91.0 87.9 -4.7 -2.6 -0.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 5 95 100 -0.9 0.8 0.2 4.4 88.9 86.6 -5.0 -3.5 -2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 12 88 100 -2.7 -0.9 -2.0 4.4 87.1 82.9 -7.3 -5.5 -3.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 6 94 100 0.6 2.8 2.4 4.2 89.7 86.5 -4.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------