***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 1.2 3.4 2.7 4.3 94.1 92.3 -2.1 -0.9 0.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.7 2.3 4.1 92.7 91.0 -3.1 -1.8 -0.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 2.7 4.9 2.4 4.0 93.7 92.0 -0.7 0.5 1.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 2 98 100 -2.8 -0.3 -0.3 4.2 93.3 91.8 -6.7 -5.3 -3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 0.0 2.0 0.1 4.4 93.9 92.4 -3.2 -2.0 -1.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 -1.1 0.6 -2.3 4.0 93.1 90.9 -3.8 -2.8 -1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.9 3.0 2.4 4.3 92.9 91.2 -2.8 -1.5 -0.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 3 97 100 -5.8 -3.8 -1.8 4.1 93.1 90.7 -8.9 -7.8 -6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.7 0.5 4.2 92.9 91.4 -2.4 -1.2 -0.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 2 98 100 0.6 2.5 -0.9 4.2 93.6 91.5 -2.3 -1.2 -0.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 1 99 100 0.4 2.2 -0.5 4.2 93.0 91.6 -2.6 -1.5 -0.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 1 99 100 -0.7 1.0 -0.9 4.1 92.6 90.8 -3.6 -2.6 -1.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 2 98 100 0.1 1.9 -1.3 4.0 92.7 90.8 -3.0 -1.8 -0.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 4 96 100 1.1 2.9 0.5 3.9 92.4 90.4 -2.0 -0.8 0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.4 0.4 3.9 91.8 90.5 -2.5 -1.3 -0.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 1 99 100 0.9 2.6 -1.0 4.2 92.8 91.3 -1.9 -0.9 0.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 1 99 100 0.7 2.7 2.2 4.1 91.9 90.0 -3.0 -1.6 -0.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 -1.6 0.2 -1.6 4.1 93.3 90.3 -4.4 -3.4 -2.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.7 2.2 4.0 92.6 90.9 -3.0 -1.7 -0.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 7 93 100 -4.4 -2.1 -3.5 3.8 92.8 88.8 -7.9 -6.6 -5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.8 1.8 4.1 93.5 91.9 -2.7 -1.4 -0.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.3 2.2 3.9 91.9 90.2 -3.2 -1.9 -0.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 0.1 1.8 1.9 3.8 92.3 90.7 -3.0 -1.9 -0.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 0.3 2.1 0.3 3.9 92.7 90.5 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 0.3 2.5 1.2 4.4 94.9 93.4 -2.7 -1.6 -0.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.5 -1.3 3.9 92.1 90.2 -2.7 -1.7 -0.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 1 99 100 0.9 3.4 2.1 4.5 94.4 92.7 -2.7 -1.4 -0.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 1 99 100 -0.7 0.9 -0.2 4.0 91.9 90.6 -3.8 -2.6 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 5 95 100 -2.1 -0.1 -2.4 4.0 92.8 89.2 -5.3 -4.1 -3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.1 3.3 2.5 4.2 93.3 91.5 -2.7 -1.3 0.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------