***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.7 10.8 6.0 90.0 89.2 4.2 6.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 9.7 11.9 10.9 6.4 88.9 88.4 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 10.7 13.3 11.2 6.1 90.2 89.4 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 4.2 5.8 7.4 5.1 84.8 83.5 -1.7 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 1 99 100 10.6 13.2 9.5 5.9 90.3 89.3 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 9.5 11.6 7.5 5.1 89.1 88.2 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 9.4 11.8 10.7 6.4 89.5 88.9 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 1.5 3.1 7.9 5.1 88.6 87.8 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.1 14.1 10.6 6.1 90.9 90.0 4.9 7.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 10.8 13.3 9.3 5.8 90.2 89.3 4.8 6.9 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.9 13.7 9.6 6.0 90.8 89.9 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.5 8.5 5.2 88.9 88.1 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.6 13.1 8.9 5.3 90.5 89.6 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.8 10.8 6.1 90.1 89.1 4.7 7.0 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 6 94 100 9.6 10.5 8.6 4.8 82.0 81.1 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.9 9.2 5.9 90.9 90.0 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 9.0 11.1 10.5 6.3 89.2 88.6 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 10.0 12.3 8.7 5.4 89.4 88.5 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 10.0 12.4 11.1 6.4 89.2 88.6 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 6.1 7.3 5.8 4.2 85.4 84.7 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 10.8 13.5 11.0 6.1 90.5 89.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 10.0 12.3 10.7 6.3 89.2 88.6 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 10.2 12.9 11.2 6.3 90.0 89.3 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 11.3 14.2 10.6 5.9 90.5 89.5 4.8 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 1 99 100 9.6 11.9 9.4 5.6 89.4 88.4 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 9.9 11.4 6.9 4.2 87.0 86.1 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 10.3 12.9 10.2 5.9 90.5 89.6 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 10.7 12.4 8.3 5.2 84.3 83.1 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 6.4 8.4 7.6 5.0 88.5 87.6 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 9.7 12.1 11.0 6.4 89.2 88.6 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------