***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2016.-28.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 11.2 12.5 9.8 3.2 77.4 73.6 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 10.5 11.5 9.9 3.3 77.2 74.0 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 11.3 12.4 10.0 3.2 76.2 72.6 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 4.3 5.6 7.8 3.3 77.2 73.0 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 10.9 12.2 8.1 3.0 75.4 71.2 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 10.2 11.1 6.4 2.8 74.8 70.4 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 10.1 11.1 9.7 3.2 77.3 73.9 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 38 62 100 1.2 1.6 6.7 2.5 72.0 68.0 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 11.4 12.5 8.8 2.9 74.3 70.2 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 11.4 12.1 7.6 2.7 72.5 68.6 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 11.5 12.5 7.8 2.8 74.7 70.5 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 10.7 11.4 7.5 2.7 73.5 69.4 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 11.3 12.1 7.0 2.7 74.2 70.1 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 12.0 12.8 9.1 2.9 73.5 69.9 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 10.2 11.7 8.1 3.4 77.9 74.0 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 11.8 12.8 7.5 2.9 75.3 71.1 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 27 73 100 9.7 10.6 9.6 3.2 76.9 73.6 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 10.9 11.5 7.2 2.5 70.9 67.2 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 10.7 11.7 10.1 3.3 77.0 73.7 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 6.2 6.4 4.8 2.1 68.9 65.5 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 11.4 12.5 9.4 3.1 75.6 71.7 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 10.7 11.7 9.9 3.2 77.1 73.8 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 11.2 12.2 10.2 3.2 76.3 72.8 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 11.4 12.1 8.8 2.8 73.0 69.3 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 10.4 11.6 8.2 3.2 77.6 73.4 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 10.7 11.4 6.7 2.6 74.2 70.3 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 10.8 12.0 9.0 3.2 77.7 73.6 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 11.2 12.8 8.1 3.3 77.2 73.1 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 45 55 100 6.9 7.4 6.2 2.3 69.9 66.4 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 10.3 11.3 10.0 3.3 77.3 73.9 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------