***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.4 10.4 2.1 69.5 65.3 7.1 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 9.9 11.6 10.3 2.0 68.8 64.8 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 12.5 12.7 10.5 2.1 69.0 64.9 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 4.0 5.9 8.2 2.0 68.6 64.5 0.7 3.1 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 12.9 13.0 8.7 2.1 68.6 64.5 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 12.3 12.5 7.1 2.1 69.5 65.2 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 9.6 11.3 10.2 2.0 69.1 65.0 6.7 8.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 2.5 2.5 7.3 1.9 68.1 64.1 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 13.0 13.1 9.3 2.1 68.4 64.4 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 39 61 100 13.0 13.0 8.2 2.0 68.2 64.1 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 38 62 100 13.4 13.4 8.4 2.0 68.8 64.7 8.2 10.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 12.5 12.5 8.1 2.0 68.7 64.8 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.4 13.5 7.7 2.0 69.3 65.2 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 11.4 13.2 9.6 2.0 68.3 64.1 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 12.0 12.2 8.5 2.0 68.5 64.7 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 13.8 13.9 8.1 2.0 68.9 64.8 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 9.3 10.9 10.0 1.9 68.2 64.1 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.7 7.7 2.0 67.8 63.7 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 10.0 11.9 10.6 2.0 68.9 64.8 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 6.6 7.8 5.3 1.7 66.5 62.6 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 12.7 12.9 10.0 2.1 68.7 64.6 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 10.0 11.7 10.2 1.9 68.1 63.9 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 12.4 12.6 10.6 2.1 69.1 64.9 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.3 9.4 2.1 68.4 64.3 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 11.8 12.1 8.7 2.1 69.5 65.1 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.9 12.9 7.3 1.9 69.2 65.2 8.3 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 40 60 100 12.1 12.4 9.6 2.1 69.8 65.5 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 11.0 13.0 8.4 2.0 68.2 64.3 7.3 10.0 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 8.3 8.3 6.8 1.9 67.6 63.5 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 42 58 100 11.4 11.7 10.5 2.0 69.1 65.1 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------