***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 2 98 100 10.8 12.8 10.1 3.8 89.7 87.5 6.0 7.7 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 10.1 11.9 10.1 3.9 88.5 86.7 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 2 98 100 11.0 13.0 10.3 3.8 89.1 86.8 6.0 7.9 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 9 91 100 4.0 5.7 7.8 3.5 87.4 84.7 -0.5 1.3 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 11.0 13.1 8.6 3.7 89.3 86.5 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 6 94 100 9.9 11.6 6.8 3.2 88.4 85.2 5.7 7.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 9.8 11.7 10.0 3.9 88.9 87.1 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 0.9 2.1 7.1 3.1 87.2 83.9 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 11.2 13.3 9.3 3.6 89.2 86.4 6.5 8.3 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 11.0 12.9 8.1 3.4 88.3 85.3 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 4 96 100 11.3 13.4 8.4 3.6 89.6 86.6 6.6 8.3 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 10.4 12.1 7.9 3.2 88.1 84.9 6.2 7.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 11.0 12.8 7.6 3.3 89.1 85.9 6.7 8.3 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 11.4 13.5 9.5 3.6 88.0 85.4 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 10.3 11.9 8.2 3.5 85.8 83.5 5.2 7.1 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 11.5 13.5 8.0 3.5 89.5 86.5 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 5 95 100 9.4 11.2 9.8 3.8 88.1 86.3 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 10.5 12.1 7.6 3.2 86.9 83.8 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 4 96 100 10.4 12.4 10.3 3.9 88.5 86.6 5.1 7.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 6.0 7.0 5.1 2.5 83.2 80.1 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 11.1 13.1 9.9 3.7 89.4 86.8 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 5 95 100 10.3 12.2 10.0 3.8 88.0 86.2 5.2 7.1 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 10.7 12.8 10.4 3.8 88.7 86.5 5.6 7.5 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 9 91 100 11.1 13.1 9.3 3.5 88.2 85.4 6.5 8.3 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 10.1 12.2 8.6 3.7 89.7 87.1 5.4 7.2 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 10.3 11.8 6.9 2.9 87.6 84.4 6.5 8.0 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 2 98 100 10.4 12.5 9.4 3.8 90.1 87.8 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 11.2 13.2 8.1 3.6 86.8 84.2 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 6.3 7.8 6.6 3.0 85.7 82.6 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 10.0 11.9 10.3 3.9 88.9 87.0 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------