***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-14.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 10.9 13.1 14.3 145.3 76.5 67.5 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 12.0 15.1 13.8 154.6 78.4 69.0 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 43 57 100 14.5 16.6 13.4 131.0 72.9 64.9 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 16.2 19.4 16.8 140.7 75.4 67.8 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 11.6 17.0 14.8 119.2 69.2 61.3 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 12.3 13.1 14.6 130.7 72.9 65.2 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 10.1 13.2 14.2 165.8 80.6 71.3 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 42 58 100 21.4 22.0 15.9 123.3 70.1 64.3 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 9.7 14.6 14.3 119.3 69.4 62.0 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 12.6 17.3 14.9 113.5 67.2 60.9 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 14.7 14.9 13.7 120.7 69.7 62.3 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 13.2 14.0 14.1 126.3 71.4 65.2 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.1 13.7 13.3 113.9 67.2 59.7 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 83 17 100 12.5 16.9 14.8 113.4 67.3 60.1 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 13.8 17.1 15.3 148.3 77.0 69.0 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.5 12.4 13.6 120.2 69.4 61.7 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 12.0 16.9 15.9 190.9 84.6 75.0 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 10.1 13.5 16.3 111.9 66.5 60.3 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.3 15.9 13.5 141.8 75.6 66.9 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 15.4 18.0 25.9 147.6 76.1 71.3 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 15.6 17.0 14.4 129.9 72.6 64.4 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 12.3 16.3 16.5 179.0 82.7 74.2 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.7 12.6 13.3 124.7 71.3 63.5 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 11.2 14.6 13.9 109.7 65.9 58.7 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.8 18.0 15.8 128.8 72.3 62.9 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 9.8 11.7 16.1 139.0 75.2 69.1 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 15.1 17.2 14.9 137.3 74.5 65.4 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 14.3 16.3 14.7 135.6 74.1 66.5 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 16.3 22.7 18.9 121.3 69.2 63.3 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 11.5 14.2 13.5 145.9 76.7 67.8 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------