***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2016.-21.02.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 8.2 10.5 11.8 111.3 66.9 57.5 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 41 59 100 9.0 9.8 12.4 127.6 72.1 64.0 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 8.5 11.6 12.2 114.1 67.9 59.5 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 13.8 14.1 14.8 125.2 71.2 61.5 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 14.5 14.7 14.9 122.8 70.4 60.4 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 10.2 10.4 16.2 123.0 70.4 60.7 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 8.6 9.4 12.2 124.7 71.4 63.4 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 18.1 23.9 17.3 131.3 73.0 60.7 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.8 12.1 15.3 123.5 70.6 60.1 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.7 15.9 17.1 129.7 72.5 61.2 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 9.0 12.6 14.3 126.0 71.4 59.7 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.1 15.6 14.6 128.5 72.2 59.7 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 13.7 14.0 15.0 122.7 70.3 60.1 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 10.4 14.9 16.4 124.2 70.9 61.6 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.8 14.4 126.3 71.9 61.2 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.4 11.5 14.1 122.7 70.4 59.6 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 10.4 12.3 13.5 145.2 76.5 66.0 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 10.7 16.8 19.0 131.1 73.0 63.1 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 9.4 9.9 12.4 123.8 71.0 62.7 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 18.6 20.6 23.1 132.0 73.3 62.3 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 12.2 11.4 13.3 115.7 68.0 57.9 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 10.5 12.3 13.9 146.0 76.6 65.7 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 6.2 8.7 12.5 116.4 68.7 60.0 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.2 14.6 16.0 123.7 70.6 61.3 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.9 14.1 110.7 66.4 58.1 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 12.1 12.6 14.9 126.1 71.5 60.8 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 7.7 9.7 13.2 108.5 65.7 57.5 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 13.0 14.0 14.7 128.8 72.4 61.6 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 25.3 27.8 20.5 130.0 72.7 63.3 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 6.3 9.7 11.9 119.0 69.7 62.1 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------