***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 11.5 10.2 116.7 68.6 52.5 2.8 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.1 13.6 11.1 135.7 74.3 55.1 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.1 14.7 10.9 118.9 68.9 52.5 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 5.5 14.1 11.6 111.3 67.2 53.1 5.4 9.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 5.5 13.1 11.3 102.8 63.4 51.2 5.3 9.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.9 9.8 12.6 111.6 66.8 55.9 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.7 11.9 11.0 133.3 73.6 54.5 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.5 19.0 11.9 99.2 61.4 50.9 8.3 14.0 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 4.5 9.8 11.3 98.2 61.0 49.4 4.5 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.9 11.3 12.2 96.8 60.0 49.5 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 8.7 9.8 10.3 101.7 62.9 51.2 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.6 10.0 10.1 103.5 63.9 52.1 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 8.1 9.9 11.0 108.5 65.6 54.3 3.7 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.8 19.8 13.9 109.5 65.4 51.3 6.4 12.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.7 13.9 11.3 119.0 70.0 53.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 8.1 9.8 10.4 107.7 65.4 53.2 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 3.5 10.8 11.4 142.7 76.2 55.6 3.4 5.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 10.6 11.0 13.9 97.1 59.8 48.8 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.5 11.2 132.8 73.4 54.4 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 10.9 11.7 15.7 96.9 60.2 50.2 5.2 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.6 11.9 10.6 104.1 63.7 49.9 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 4.3 13.2 11.3 140.7 75.7 55.9 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 12.2 11.6 123.3 70.4 52.3 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 6.7 15.6 13.0 105.5 63.5 50.0 6.6 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.7 12.1 12.0 112.9 67.3 52.9 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 7.3 9.1 11.0 109.4 66.5 54.5 2.9 5.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 3.1 11.1 11.7 118.8 69.1 53.9 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.6 11.8 11.3 114.4 68.3 53.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 15.4 16.0 14.7 96.1 59.6 48.8 7.5 12.4 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.4 14.4 10.9 130.8 72.9 54.5 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------