***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2016.-06.03.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 44.4 46.3 47.1 123.3 70.8 66.3 20.5 30.3 41.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 43.4 48.2 48.9 137.9 77.0 70.7 21.6 30.0 39.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 44 56 100 55.4 57.3 47.9 120.3 69.5 64.8 27.3 39.2 53.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 58.0 58.8 55.5 120.7 69.7 65.8 29.5 41.3 55.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 41 59 100 58.5 55.8 54.0 113.5 66.1 62.5 29.3 41.5 55.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 46.1 45.0 57.5 116.3 67.9 63.1 22.7 32.3 43.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 39.5 44.6 48.7 138.9 77.5 71.0 19.6 27.2 36.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 82.0 80.4 60.4 115.7 67.4 62.8 51.1 64.4 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 49.2 47.3 54.6 113.6 66.2 62.5 25.7 35.5 47.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 40 60 100 59.1 56.6 59.5 112.9 65.9 61.8 33.0 44.1 56.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 49.1 46.6 50.9 113.1 65.8 61.9 24.3 34.7 46.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 53.3 52.0 51.5 115.8 67.5 62.8 29.0 39.2 50.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 53.3 50.1 52.2 112.0 65.2 60.7 27.8 38.5 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 45 55 100 67.0 68.3 60.2 117.4 68.7 63.5 40.5 52.5 65.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 40 60 100 55.8 56.9 51.7 122.5 70.1 66.0 19.8 33.4 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 42 58 100 46.9 44.2 50.2 112.5 65.5 61.4 22.0 32.2 44.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 42.6 52.0 52.5 154.9 82.6 75.1 21.3 29.2 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 54.0 52.7 66.2 113.5 66.4 62.1 29.9 40.3 52.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 46.5 49.9 48.8 132.6 74.9 69.1 24.6 33.2 43.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 61.6 63.0 84.7 121.9 70.7 65.9 32.5 44.5 58.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 45 55 100 52.8 52.3 50.4 115.9 67.4 63.4 25.8 37.3 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 44.1 53.4 54.2 153.2 82.3 74.7 22.7 30.7 39.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 40.9 42.9 49.7 122.6 70.8 65.6 21.2 29.4 39.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 49.7 58.7 57.6 113.9 66.5 61.9 34.1 45.6 58.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 42 58 100 55.4 54.6 54.6 116.9 67.9 63.8 24.4 36.9 52.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 44.8 45.2 54.9 119.6 69.5 64.1 24.4 33.0 42.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 48.3 49.0 51.9 121.1 70.0 65.3 22.3 32.6 45.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 52.0 52.0 52.2 119.0 68.7 64.8 19.6 32.2 48.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 42 58 100 84.9 84.5 72.5 115.9 67.8 63.2 51.2 66.1 82.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 45.9 49.5 47.5 130.8 74.2 68.5 22.9 32.1 42.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------