***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9.4 11.3 10.4 5.2 83.9 80.8 4.2 6.4 8.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 8.7 10.0 9.8 4.6 79.9 77.2 3.7 5.9 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 22 78 100 9.8 11.8 11.0 5.4 84.0 80.9 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 14 86 100 4.0 6.3 8.0 5.8 87.0 84.2 -1.7 0.6 2.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 10.0 12.6 9.9 5.8 87.8 84.5 4.6 6.8 8.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 11 89 100 9.2 11.9 8.6 5.9 90.0 87.2 4.2 6.2 8.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 8.3 9.6 9.5 4.5 79.6 76.9 3.2 5.4 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 16 84 100 1.0 2.7 8.2 5.2 86.8 83.5 -2.9 -1.3 0.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 16 84 100 10.5 13.0 10.9 5.6 87.1 83.8 4.9 7.1 9.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 18 82 100 10.1 12.4 9.3 5.4 86.4 83.0 4.8 6.9 9.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 10.3 12.9 10.6 6.0 87.9 84.7 4.8 7.0 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 9.8 12.2 9.1 5.4 87.7 84.6 4.7 6.8 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 10.1 12.5 10.0 5.7 88.0 85.0 4.9 7.0 8.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 10.4 12.3 10.5 5.2 84.0 80.6 4.7 7.0 9.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 9.3 10.9 9.4 5.2 84.1 81.8 3.7 5.9 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 10.6 13.2 9.8 5.9 88.2 85.4 5.2 7.4 9.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 8.0 9.0 8.9 4.0 78.1 75.3 3.4 5.4 7.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 14 86 100 9.5 11.7 8.8 5.5 87.2 83.7 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 9.0 10.5 10.2 4.8 80.7 78.0 3.6 5.9 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 14 86 100 5.7 7.4 6.3 4.8 86.1 82.6 1.3 3.1 4.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 17 83 100 10.1 12.5 11.3 5.5 86.5 83.1 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 24 76 100 9.0 10.2 9.4 4.2 79.1 76.1 3.9 6.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 23 77 100 9.2 10.9 10.6 5.0 81.9 79.1 3.8 6.1 8.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 10.6 12.9 10.7 5.5 85.8 82.4 4.8 7.2 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 17 83 100 9.0 11.2 9.7 5.4 86.3 83.0 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 9.6 11.8 8.0 5.0 89.2 86.1 5.0 6.8 8.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 9.5 11.5 9.9 5.0 84.5 81.2 4.3 6.5 8.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 12 88 100 10.5 12.9 9.0 5.7 86.3 83.8 4.3 6.7 9.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 14 86 100 6.0 8.1 8.0 5.3 87.3 83.6 1.0 3.0 4.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 8.8 10.3 10.1 4.8 81.1 78.3 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------