***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 8.7 7.6 7.2 1.1 60.3 58.1 4.6 6.5 8.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 36 64 100 7.8 6.7 7.2 1.1 59.9 58.2 3.5 5.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 8.8 7.5 7.7 1.1 59.8 58.0 4.1 6.3 8.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 0.4 1.0 4.6 1.4 63.1 59.1 -2.4 -0.5 1.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.6 6.0 1.2 60.7 58.1 4.2 6.3 8.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 7.8 6.5 4.6 1.0 59.6 57.8 3.5 5.4 7.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 7.4 6.3 7.1 1.1 60.1 58.3 3.1 5.1 7.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 -4.5 -1.4 5.2 1.2 61.0 58.5 -4.1 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.8 7.7 6.9 1.1 59.9 57.8 4.3 6.4 8.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 3.8 7.6 5.8 1.1 60.2 58.0 4.3 6.3 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 9.1 7.9 6.4 1.2 60.6 58.0 4.4 6.6 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 3.4 7.2 5.7 1.1 60.2 58.0 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 8.9 7.6 5.8 1.0 59.2 57.7 4.4 6.5 8.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.9 7.2 1.2 60.1 57.9 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.4 7.1 6.1 1.5 63.2 59.3 3.6 5.6 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 9.5 8.2 5.8 1.1 60.1 58.0 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 2.9 6.2 7.0 1.1 59.7 57.8 3.2 5.1 6.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 8.3 7.1 5.6 1.2 60.6 58.3 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 8.2 6.9 7.4 1.1 59.8 58.2 3.4 5.6 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 4.7 3.7 3.8 1.2 61.6 59.0 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.8 7.5 7.5 1.1 59.7 57.6 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.2 6.8 7.2 1.1 59.7 57.9 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 8.5 7.1 7.7 1.1 59.6 58.1 3.6 5.8 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 9.0 7.7 7.1 1.2 60.2 58.1 4.3 6.4 8.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 6.3 6.7 6.1 1.2 61.0 58.0 3.5 5.4 7.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 32 68 100 8.5 7.3 4.9 1.0 60.4 58.6 4.1 6.1 8.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 8.3 7.1 6.8 1.1 60.6 58.1 3.8 5.8 7.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 7.1 7.6 5.3 1.3 62.0 58.5 4.1 6.2 8.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 32 68 100 4.7 3.5 5.1 1.2 60.9 58.6 0.0 2.2 4.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 7.7 6.5 7.2 1.1 59.8 58.3 3.3 5.4 7.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------