***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 5.8 7.3 6.6 -0.9 41.4 44.3 6.2 8.5 10.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 4.6 6.4 6.6 -0.8 42.6 44.9 5.0 7.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 5.7 7.1 6.9 -1.1 40.1 43.4 6.1 8.5 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -1.0 0.3 3.9 -1.2 38.3 42.0 -0.4 1.8 3.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 5.6 6.9 4.9 -1.3 37.5 41.5 6.2 8.6 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.8 5.9 3.3 -1.6 35.1 39.7 5.6 7.8 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 4.3 6.2 6.7 -0.6 43.7 45.7 4.7 7.1 9.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 -3.0 -1.8 4.1 -1.3 37.4 41.6 -2.3 -0.6 1.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 6.1 7.3 5.5 -1.4 37.4 41.4 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 5.9 7.4 4.6 -1.4 37.5 41.6 6.7 9.0 11.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 6.0 7.4 4.9 -1.3 37.4 41.6 6.7 9.0 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 5.5 6.9 4.8 -1.3 37.5 41.9 6.3 8.4 10.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 6.0 7.4 4.2 -1.2 38.1 42.3 6.7 8.9 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 5.7 7.6 5.9 -1.2 39.1 42.8 6.6 9.2 11.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 4.8 6.0 4.4 -1.3 37.5 41.9 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 6.4 7.7 4.4 -1.3 37.2 41.4 7.1 9.4 11.4 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.1 6.0 6.7 -0.7 43.0 44.8 4.7 6.9 9.0 30 Palic 37000G16 62 38 0 100 5.6 7.3 4.6 -1.2 39.0 42.9 6.5 8.7 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.3 6.7 -0.9 41.4 44.1 5.1 7.5 9.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 1.5 3.0 2.6 -1.0 39.5 43.7 2.2 4.2 6.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.2 6.2 -1.3 38.3 42.0 6.5 8.8 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.3 6.3 6.6 -0.9 41.0 43.4 5.2 7.6 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.7 6.9 -1.1 39.8 43.2 5.7 8.2 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 5.9 7.5 5.8 -1.2 39.1 42.8 6.7 9.0 11.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 5.0 6.4 5.0 -1.1 39.8 43.0 5.5 7.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 5.7 7.2 4.2 -1.1 38.7 42.9 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.4 6.9 6.1 -0.9 41.6 44.3 5.7 8.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.0 6.4 4.0 -1.4 36.7 41.0 5.8 8.4 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 1.8 3.5 4.0 -1.1 39.8 43.6 2.7 4.8 6.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 4.7 6.3 6.6 -0.8 42.3 45.0 5.0 7.4 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------