***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.7 9.4 0.8 58.4 57.7 7.1 9.5 11.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.1 10.1 9.1 0.7 57.4 56.9 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 10.9 11.1 9.8 0.8 58.1 57.3 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 5.9 4.8 7.4 1.2 61.6 60.0 0.7 3.1 5.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.8 8.3 1.0 60.2 58.8 7.9 10.3 12.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.8 11.2 6.6 1.1 60.3 58.1 7.4 9.8 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.8 9.1 0.7 57.9 57.2 6.7 8.8 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 1.2 1.3 6.9 0.8 57.9 56.9 -1.5 0.4 2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.8 8.7 1.0 59.3 58.0 8.1 10.5 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.5 11.6 7.7 0.9 58.2 57.1 8.2 10.6 12.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.7 12.0 8.1 0.9 59.2 58.1 8.2 10.7 13.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.1 7.7 0.8 58.3 57.5 7.9 10.1 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.8 12.2 7.0 0.9 59.6 58.3 8.6 10.9 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.6 11.5 8.6 0.7 56.9 56.1 8.1 10.6 12.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 10.9 8.0 1.1 60.8 59.5 6.7 9.3 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.2 12.6 7.6 1.0 59.9 58.5 8.8 11.2 13.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.4 8.9 0.6 56.6 56.0 6.4 8.6 10.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 11.2 11.3 7.4 0.8 57.9 56.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 9.4 0.7 57.1 56.7 6.9 9.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.6 6.8 4.8 0.8 58.0 57.1 3.9 5.9 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.5 9.4 0.9 59.0 57.9 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.0 9.1 0.5 56.0 55.7 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.0 10.9 9.7 0.7 56.7 56.1 7.7 10.0 12.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 11.7 11.8 8.6 0.8 58.1 57.0 8.3 10.7 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.4 10.7 8.0 0.9 59.6 58.5 7.1 9.4 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.7 6.8 0.9 60.1 58.8 8.3 10.5 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 10.6 10.8 8.7 0.8 58.9 58.0 7.4 9.7 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 11.2 11.8 7.6 1.1 61.2 59.6 7.3 10.0 12.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.0 6.4 0.8 57.6 56.8 3.9 6.0 8.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 10.1 10.2 9.2 0.7 57.8 57.3 7.0 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------