***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 9.5 9.7 8.4 1.6 68.9 65.8 6.0 7.7 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 45 55 100 8.8 8.8 8.2 1.4 66.7 64.0 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 41 59 100 9.8 9.9 8.8 1.6 68.5 65.1 6.0 7.9 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 3.2 3.5 6.0 1.8 71.2 67.0 -0.5 1.3 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 10.0 10.2 7.3 1.7 70.8 66.3 6.2 8.0 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 9.1 9.3 5.8 1.6 71.1 66.0 5.7 7.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 45 55 100 8.4 8.5 8.1 1.4 67.2 64.5 4.8 6.6 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 39 61 100 0.3 0.4 6.1 1.5 69.8 65.0 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 10.3 10.4 8.0 1.6 70.0 65.6 6.5 8.3 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 10.1 10.2 6.9 1.5 69.6 64.9 6.5 8.2 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 10.4 10.5 7.5 1.7 71.1 66.5 6.6 8.3 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 9.6 9.7 6.8 1.5 70.3 65.7 6.2 7.8 9.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 10.2 10.4 6.8 1.6 71.3 66.5 6.7 8.3 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 42 58 100 10.3 10.4 8.0 1.5 68.4 64.1 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 9.5 9.3 7.0 1.6 68.6 65.4 5.2 7.1 9.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 10.8 10.9 6.9 1.7 71.2 66.6 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 7.0 8.1 7.9 1.3 65.7 62.8 4.7 6.5 8.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 9.7 9.9 6.6 1.6 70.6 65.5 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 7.7 9.0 8.4 1.4 66.8 63.8 5.1 7.1 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 38 62 100 5.4 5.7 4.4 1.4 70.9 65.3 2.5 3.9 5.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 9.9 10.2 8.6 1.6 69.6 65.5 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 7.7 8.9 8.1 1.2 65.5 62.4 5.2 7.1 8.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.1 9.4 8.7 1.4 67.0 63.7 5.6 7.5 9.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 10.2 10.4 8.0 1.6 69.7 65.2 6.5 8.3 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 41 59 100 9.0 9.2 7.2 1.6 70.0 66.3 5.4 7.2 8.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 9.6 9.8 6.0 1.5 71.6 66.2 6.5 8.0 9.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 9.2 9.5 7.9 1.5 69.4 66.0 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 33 67 100 10.3 10.4 6.5 1.7 70.0 66.0 5.7 7.8 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 38 62 100 5.7 5.9 5.9 1.5 71.0 65.6 2.4 4.0 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 44 56 100 8.7 8.8 8.3 1.5 67.3 64.6 5.1 6.9 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------