***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-14.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 21 79 100 12.1 16.7 19.1 179.3 83.3 76.9 2.9 5.6 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 12.5 17.3 16.7 171.8 81.9 74.6 2.5 5.4 9.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 16.1 20.6 16.1 155.8 78.7 71.8 3.4 7.2 13.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 48 52 100 15.0 16.9 17.1 125.5 71.2 65.4 4.4 8.5 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 10.8 16.7 15.2 118.1 68.6 62.7 4.6 9.0 15.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.3 10.9 13.9 110.4 65.8 60.6 4.1 7.1 10.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 26 74 100 10.1 14.8 17.1 182.1 83.6 76.6 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 16.0 18.2 14.9 103.2 62.0 55.9 8.6 13.7 20.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 9.4 13.7 13.5 114.7 67.4 60.8 3.7 7.5 13.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 12.5 13.5 13.4 96.8 59.5 53.4 5.2 10.0 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 9.5 11.5 13.3 99.9 61.7 55.8 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 8.9 10.6 13.5 103.7 63.0 56.5 3.3 6.8 11.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.1 11.3 13.9 98.9 60.9 55.1 4.3 8.1 13.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.1 19.4 17.4 129.1 72.2 65.0 5.9 10.4 16.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 85 15 100 8.4 13.8 14.7 122.7 70.7 64.4 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 8.0 11.0 14.6 111.2 66.0 60.2 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 10.7 15.3 16.6 171.5 81.9 73.4 3.3 5.9 9.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 10.5 11.8 14.2 102.1 61.8 55.0 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 14.5 19.4 16.7 165.7 80.9 74.0 3.0 6.4 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 9.7 14.1 20.0 122.4 68.7 61.6 3.8 7.5 12.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 16.1 18.2 15.5 138.5 74.5 67.7 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 11.1 15.3 16.9 165.4 80.7 73.0 3.5 6.3 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 13.2 16.6 16.8 157.1 79.1 72.6 3.0 6.0 10.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.3 15.5 14.4 117.1 67.8 60.5 4.8 9.0 14.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 29 71 100 18.1 22.9 19.7 155.0 78.7 72.7 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 42 58 100 9.6 11.0 17.1 132.3 73.4 67.2 2.7 5.1 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 21 79 100 16.9 23.0 20.0 176.3 82.8 77.0 3.9 7.7 13.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 86 14 100 8.6 13.0 14.3 112.6 67.4 61.1 3.3 7.0 12.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 16.6 20.1 15.8 109.5 64.6 56.7 8.1 13.7 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 12.6 17.6 16.9 174.2 82.4 75.4 2.7 5.6 9.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------