***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.02.2021.-21.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.9 10.3 94.4 60.9 49.2 3.6 6.4 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 2.5 8.3 10.0 111.1 67.3 52.5 2.2 4.5 7.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 8.9 9.9 11.1 100.9 63.1 51.1 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.9 10.4 10.9 82.8 56.3 46.1 6.2 9.1 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.6 10.9 11.2 89.5 58.0 47.7 5.6 9.0 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.9 6.7 10.0 79.9 52.8 42.5 3.8 6.3 9.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 2.6 8.2 9.7 111.0 67.3 52.0 2.5 4.7 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 18.6 17.5 11.3 85.1 55.4 46.8 11.6 16.0 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 8.9 9.0 11.8 93.5 59.4 49.6 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.8 11.3 12.3 93.9 59.8 50.6 5.0 8.6 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 9.2 9.1 11.1 88.8 58.1 49.1 4.7 7.4 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.6 10.1 10.3 83.0 54.6 46.2 5.6 9.0 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.5 10.3 11.3 88.7 57.4 48.1 5.3 8.6 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 5.4 11.2 13.2 95.2 60.0 49.0 5.1 8.6 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 3.3 7.1 9.5 77.4 55.3 44.0 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.4 7.6 10.2 80.9 53.4 44.4 4.3 6.9 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 2.2 8.8 9.4 111.1 67.4 50.3 2.2 4.7 8.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 11.1 11.4 13.0 93.7 59.1 50.3 4.8 8.6 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.0 8.5 10.3 107.2 65.8 51.6 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.1 14.9 90.0 56.6 48.7 6.4 11.0 16.9 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.7 8.9 11.3 93.5 59.9 49.5 3.5 6.5 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 2.7 8.8 10.0 108.1 65.8 48.8 2.8 5.3 8.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 2.8 7.4 10.8 100.3 62.9 50.5 2.8 5.0 8.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.7 10.9 12.6 95.5 60.1 50.6 4.6 8.2 12.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.9 8.5 11.5 89.5 57.9 47.8 3.6 6.6 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 4.2 7.3 10.0 79.2 51.5 42.3 4.1 7.0 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.1 8.3 10.9 94.4 60.2 49.6 3.4 6.2 9.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 3.5 7.5 10.0 79.2 55.1 44.7 2.9 6.2 11.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.2 20.5 13.8 94.8 59.3 51.0 10.8 16.6 23.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.7 8.6 10.3 107.6 66.1 52.2 2.5 5.0 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------