***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.02.2021.-28.02.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.7 8.9 78.1 52.0 43.5 3.0 5.4 8.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.2 8.1 80.4 53.8 43.4 2.6 4.6 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.0 9.0 75.6 50.4 41.9 2.8 5.8 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.7 10.9 80.3 54.0 43.3 3.4 6.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.3 6.2 10.8 78.6 52.3 43.4 2.9 5.7 9.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.4 7.9 10.9 81.2 53.6 43.8 3.9 7.1 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 2.4 5.1 7.9 80.5 54.4 43.5 2.2 4.5 7.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.2 12.8 89.8 57.3 48.0 6.3 10.1 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 2.7 5.2 11.3 78.2 51.2 43.1 2.5 4.9 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 8.0 7.0 12.8 85.8 55.0 46.7 3.2 6.0 9.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 7.4 6.6 11.1 84.6 55.4 45.7 3.0 5.5 9.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.7 11.2 88.5 57.3 46.8 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 8.5 10.9 81.7 54.3 44.8 4.0 7.4 12.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 9.3 6.9 11.9 75.5 50.3 43.5 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 3.0 9.1 11.4 88.5 59.5 44.7 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 7.8 6.7 10.6 81.6 54.4 44.4 3.1 5.8 9.8 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 2.5 6.2 8.0 84.2 56.2 43.3 2.4 4.9 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.0 6.2 13.7 85.9 55.2 47.5 2.7 5.2 8.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 2.6 5.3 8.4 79.5 52.9 43.5 2.5 4.8 7.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.8 8.4 16.7 88.6 56.9 49.2 3.7 6.8 11.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.1 5.7 9.8 74.5 49.5 41.5 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.8 6.2 8.6 84.6 56.1 44.8 2.7 5.1 8.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 2.2 4.4 9.0 76.9 51.3 42.9 2.2 4.2 6.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 8.4 6.5 11.8 78.9 51.7 44.0 3.2 6.2 10.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 3.6 6.7 10.2 77.4 51.5 43.6 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.6 7.6 11.0 83.9 55.4 44.2 3.1 6.3 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.1 5.8 9.4 78.2 52.1 44.1 3.0 5.4 8.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 7.1 11.0 83.3 56.0 43.7 2.8 5.6 10.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.6 11.6 14.9 87.8 56.2 48.8 5.0 9.5 15.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.4 5.1 8.2 78.0 52.7 43.1 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------