***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.03.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 3.1 9.8 12.5 103.5 64.0 51.2 2.8 6.0 10.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.0 10.8 11.9 109.4 66.3 51.0 3.8 6.7 10.7 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 4.1 12.4 12.8 104.0 64.1 50.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.7 11.5 13.0 91.9 59.1 47.7 5.4 9.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 5.3 11.4 12.8 91.5 58.5 47.2 5.3 9.0 13.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.7 12.0 80.7 53.1 44.3 3.6 6.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 3.8 10.1 11.8 112.6 67.5 51.9 3.6 6.2 9.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 17.9 14.2 94.3 59.2 50.0 8.3 14.0 21.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.7 9.5 13.5 94.0 59.6 48.3 4.5 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 11.0 10.9 14.3 92.9 58.7 48.9 4.9 8.5 13.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.0 8.1 12.0 87.1 56.3 46.6 3.9 6.7 10.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 4.2 8.5 12.0 89.4 57.2 48.3 4.1 7.0 10.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 4.0 7.7 12.7 87.5 56.3 47.3 3.7 6.5 10.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.5 19.7 17.5 108.6 65.4 50.7 6.4 12.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 9.8 12.4 92.2 60.3 47.8 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.2 7.0 11.8 84.1 54.8 45.4 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 3.5 8.8 11.8 114.9 68.1 52.8 3.4 5.6 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.7 16.3 101.7 62.3 50.1 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.8 12.2 107.8 65.6 50.7 4.7 7.8 11.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 11.3 13.6 21.3 110.9 65.8 52.4 5.2 8.8 13.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.9 11.1 13.0 98.3 61.6 49.5 4.5 8.0 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 4.4 10.8 12.4 114.0 67.7 52.8 4.2 6.9 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.7 13.3 108.1 65.6 50.7 4.1 7.0 10.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 13.8 15.7 15.6 104.5 63.8 50.4 6.6 11.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 4.0 10.4 13.7 100.9 62.7 51.2 3.6 6.9 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.1 7.6 13.6 96.6 60.7 51.0 2.9 5.4 9.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 3.3 9.3 13.0 102.7 63.6 51.2 3.0 5.9 10.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 3.4 7.8 11.8 84.1 56.1 44.8 3.1 6.3 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 18.6 18.8 110.2 65.5 51.4 7.5 12.4 18.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.8 12.3 108.7 66.0 50.8 4.1 7.3 11.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------