***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 04.02.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.02.2021.-07.03.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 35.3 41.7 50.9 112.8 65.8 59.4 20.5 30.3 41.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 34.2 41.2 46.7 117.7 68.5 60.0 21.6 30.0 39.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 45.8 49.8 49.1 107.6 62.2 56.1 27.3 39.2 53.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 48.0 43.6 51.9 95.2 53.0 48.9 29.5 41.3 55.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 48.4 42.7 50.0 94.1 51.5 48.4 29.3 41.5 55.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 38.0 29.1 46.7 87.6 44.6 43.0 22.7 32.3 43.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 38.1 38.9 46.5 121.1 70.3 61.5 19.6 27.2 36.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 50.4 64.2 53.3 93.1 49.6 47.3 51.1 64.4 79.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 41.1 36.5 50.3 94.2 51.3 48.3 25.7 35.5 47.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 50.1 43.1 52.8 92.0 48.7 46.7 33.0 44.1 56.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 40.9 33.4 47.4 90.0 47.9 45.7 24.3 34.7 46.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 28.8 38.1 47.0 91.2 48.3 46.1 29.0 39.2 50.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 44.8 35.7 48.9 89.3 45.7 44.2 27.8 38.5 50.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 58.5 58.1 60.0 101.3 57.3 52.1 40.5 52.5 65.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 19.8 37.3 48.0 94.9 54.1 48.8 19.8 33.4 50.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 38.3 30.1 47.1 89.4 46.6 44.7 22.0 32.2 44.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 33.3 40.8 45.8 120.7 69.9 60.7 21.3 29.2 38.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 46.1 41.5 57.3 95.7 51.8 48.4 29.9 40.3 52.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 37.6 43.5 47.5 114.5 66.7 58.7 24.6 33.2 43.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 50.5 50.2 72.9 102.1 57.4 52.3 32.5 44.5 58.0 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 43.8 42.2 49.7 100.0 56.4 51.9 25.8 37.3 50.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 34.9 41.6 47.8 118.3 68.8 60.0 22.7 30.7 39.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 33.8 37.7 49.9 109.8 63.8 56.7 21.2 29.4 39.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 51.7 48.7 54.4 98.3 54.6 50.3 34.1 45.6 58.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 43.9 46.6 55.1 105.4 60.6 55.7 24.4 36.9 52.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 37.3 35.2 51.7 98.0 54.0 50.2 24.4 33.0 42.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 38.2 44.4 53.2 112.1 65.4 59.3 22.3 32.6 45.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 19.8 31.4 47.0 89.6 49.0 45.4 19.6 32.2 48.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 73.2 71.6 63.3 100.3 55.9 50.7 51.2 66.1 82.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 36.8 43.8 47.6 116.1 67.6 59.7 22.9 32.1 42.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------