***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 -1.3 -2.3 -4.2 -1.0 42.2 42.5 -3.2 -1.6 0.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 97 3 100 -2.4 -2.7 -3.8 -0.4 47.3 47.4 -4.3 -2.5 -0.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 0.2 -1.5 -4.8 -1.5 38.2 39.2 -2.0 -0.3 1.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 89 11 0 100 -10.1 -10.8 -10.3 -5.1 14.9 17.0 -8.0 -5.9 -4.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 -5.0 -5.0 -7.7 -3.1 27.1 29.3 -4.4 -2.8 -1.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 79 21 0 100 -6.2 -6.8 -10.5 -4.1 16.8 20.0 -5.0 -3.6 -2.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 98 2 100 -2.2 -2.4 -3.8 -0.3 48.0 48.0 -4.0 -2.2 -0.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 89 11 0 100 -11.4 -12.1 -11.0 -4.9 14.2 17.3 -9.7 -8.1 -6.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 -1.6 -3.8 -6.4 -2.1 33.9 36.7 -3.9 -2.2 -0.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 74 26 0 100 -4.7 -5.0 -9.8 -4.1 20.4 23.4 -3.7 -2.1 -0.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 -4.6 -4.8 -8.3 -3.3 24.7 27.3 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 -5.7 -6.0 -8.9 -3.5 22.8 25.6 -4.9 -3.5 -2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -8.6 -3.1 25.8 28.5 -4.4 -2.8 -1.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 -3.9 -4.1 -7.8 -3.5 24.8 28.2 -3.3 -1.7 -0.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 86 14 0 100 -5.3 -5.9 -9.4 -5.2 15.5 18.4 -3.7 -2.1 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 -3.9 -4.2 -8.5 -3.3 24.9 27.6 -3.3 -1.9 -0.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 98 2 100 -2.4 -2.4 -3.6 0.0 50.0 50.0 -4.2 -2.4 -0.8 30 Palic 37000G16 88 12 0 100 -7.1 -7.8 -11.7 -5.3 13.7 16.8 -5.6 -4.2 -2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 94 6 100 -2.3 -2.9 -3.9 -0.5 46.2 46.4 -4.4 -2.5 -0.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 93 7 0 100 -11.0 -12.0 -12.7 -5.0 11.6 14.3 -9.1 -7.3 -5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 -1.9 -3.7 -5.2 -1.8 36.2 37.9 -4.1 -2.4 -0.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 93 7 100 -2.4 -2.9 -3.7 -0.3 47.6 47.8 -4.4 -2.6 -1.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 90 10 100 -2.4 -3.2 -4.4 -0.8 43.8 44.4 -4.3 -2.7 -1.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 -4.9 -5.1 -8.4 -3.7 24.1 26.7 -4.2 -2.6 -1.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 -4.4 -4.2 -6.8 -2.8 29.1 30.4 -3.8 -2.3 -0.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 77 23 0 100 -4.9 -4.7 -8.5 -3.1 23.7 25.4 -3.9 -2.5 -1.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 -1.5 -3.3 -5.2 -1.5 38.4 38.9 -4.0 -2.0 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 -6.3 -6.9 -9.5 -4.9 16.3 18.9 -4.8 -3.2 -1.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 92 8 0 100 -8.3 -9.3 -12.1 -5.4 11.7 14.6 -6.4 -4.7 -3.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 95 5 100 -1.9 -2.5 -3.9 -0.6 45.6 45.8 -3.9 -2.1 -0.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------