***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-15.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 7.0 4.3 2.5 -1.9 35.2 35.8 4.0 6.1 8.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 5.8 4.7 3.1 -0.9 43.4 43.6 3.4 5.5 7.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 7.1 4.3 2.7 -1.9 35.1 35.8 4.0 6.3 8.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 -3.3 -2.9 -0.6 -2.8 27.7 28.7 -2.2 0.0 2.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 2.8 3.2 0.3 -2.9 26.4 27.4 4.2 6.4 8.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 89 11 0 100 1.9 1.5 -1.5 -3.7 16.4 18.6 3.9 5.8 7.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 94 6 100 5.4 4.2 2.9 -1.0 43.0 43.3 2.9 5.1 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 74 26 0 100 -4.5 -4.6 -0.5 -3.0 22.1 24.3 -3.4 -1.8 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 3.3 3.8 1.5 -2.6 28.9 29.9 4.4 6.7 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 3.1 3.2 0.3 -2.9 24.7 26.3 4.4 6.5 8.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.2 3.4 0.3 -2.9 25.9 27.1 4.4 6.6 8.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.1 3.0 0.0 -3.0 23.3 25.2 4.3 6.4 8.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 2.7 2.6 -0.3 -3.4 19.5 21.4 4.6 6.6 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 3.7 4.0 1.9 -2.3 32.1 33.1 4.2 6.5 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.4 3.1 0.8 -2.6 30.4 31.2 3.4 5.7 7.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 77 23 0 100 3.4 3.6 -0.1 -3.1 23.3 24.8 5.0 7.1 9.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 93 7 100 5.4 4.6 3.1 -0.7 44.8 45.0 3.2 5.2 7.1 30 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 2.7 2.6 -0.1 -3.0 23.3 25.2 3.9 6.0 7.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 5.9 4.5 3.0 -1.1 41.7 42.1 3.2 5.5 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 78 22 0 100 -0.4 -1.0 -2.0 -3.2 17.9 20.9 0.9 2.7 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 3.2 3.8 2.0 -2.5 29.9 30.8 4.2 6.5 8.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 6.1 4.8 3.1 -1.0 42.7 43.0 3.5 5.7 7.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 6.4 4.2 2.9 -1.5 38.4 38.9 3.5 5.7 7.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 63 37 0 100 3.3 3.7 1.5 -2.6 28.8 30.0 4.3 6.6 8.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 2.3 2.8 0.6 -2.7 28.0 28.9 3.5 5.6 7.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 2.9 2.7 -0.8 -3.3 17.7 20.0 4.7 6.5 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 3.5 3.9 1.7 -2.2 32.0 32.7 4.0 6.2 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 2.7 3.2 0.0 -2.8 28.3 29.3 3.9 6.4 8.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 -0.8 -1.0 -0.7 -3.0 22.0 24.2 0.5 2.5 4.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 91 9 100 5.8 4.4 3.0 -1.2 41.6 41.9 3.3 5.5 7.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------