***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 9.6 10.0 8.0 0.8 58.8 56.9 6.5 8.8 11.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.4 8.3 1.1 61.9 59.5 5.3 7.7 10.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.0 8.3 0.8 57.9 56.1 6.4 8.9 11.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 3.0 3.0 5.8 0.5 55.1 54.0 0.0 2.3 4.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.6 6.3 0.4 54.6 53.3 6.6 9.0 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 9.0 8.9 5.0 0.5 55.0 53.6 6.0 8.2 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 8.2 9.1 8.2 1.2 62.4 59.8 5.1 7.4 9.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 0.4 0.1 5.3 0.3 53.2 52.2 -1.8 -0.2 1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 10.3 10.2 7.0 0.5 55.2 53.7 7.0 9.5 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 10.2 9.9 6.1 0.4 54.0 52.7 7.0 9.4 11.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 10.2 10.0 6.1 0.4 54.1 52.9 7.0 9.4 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.2 5.9 0.3 53.1 52.1 6.6 8.8 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 10.2 9.8 5.5 0.4 54.0 52.8 7.1 9.3 11.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 10.7 10.6 7.5 0.7 56.6 54.5 7.0 9.6 12.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.0 6.1 0.6 56.2 55.4 5.7 8.1 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.7 10.3 5.7 0.4 53.8 52.8 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.9 8.9 8.2 1.2 62.9 60.3 5.0 7.2 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.7 5.7 0.3 53.6 52.2 6.9 9.2 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 8.7 9.5 8.5 1.1 60.8 58.5 5.4 7.9 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 5.4 4.9 3.4 0.2 52.0 51.4 2.7 4.6 6.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 10.0 10.0 7.6 0.6 56.1 54.6 6.8 9.2 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 8.9 9.7 8.4 1.1 61.9 59.4 5.6 8.0 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 9.4 9.9 8.5 0.9 59.0 56.8 6.1 8.6 10.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 10.3 10.1 7.2 0.5 55.2 53.5 7.0 9.4 11.6 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 8.8 9.1 6.4 0.7 57.3 55.7 5.8 8.2 10.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.6 9.2 5.2 0.3 53.4 52.6 6.9 8.9 10.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 9.1 9.6 7.2 0.8 58.7 56.8 6.1 8.4 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.7 9.6 6.0 0.5 54.9 54.0 6.1 8.9 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.2 5.7 4.8 0.4 54.0 52.5 3.1 5.2 7.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.2 8.3 1.1 61.0 58.7 5.4 7.7 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------