***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 87 13 100 8.2 7.8 6.6 0.0 50.4 50.5 6.0 7.8 9.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 7.5 7.7 6.9 0.5 55.9 55.4 5.3 7.1 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 85 15 100 8.4 7.9 6.8 0.0 49.8 49.9 6.1 7.9 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 1.7 0.7 4.2 -0.5 44.2 45.1 -0.5 1.2 2.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 8.6 7.3 4.7 -0.6 42.9 44.0 6.2 8.1 9.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 8.0 6.2 3.2 -0.8 37.6 40.3 5.7 7.3 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 7.2 7.4 6.8 0.5 56.0 55.5 4.9 6.7 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 -0.5 -1.7 3.8 -0.7 39.8 41.8 -2.2 -1.0 0.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 8.9 7.8 5.6 -0.4 44.5 45.4 6.6 8.3 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 9.0 7.4 4.5 -0.6 41.3 42.9 6.5 8.3 9.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.6 4.6 -0.6 42.1 43.4 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 8.5 7.0 4.3 -0.7 40.1 42.0 6.3 7.9 9.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.1 7.3 3.9 -0.8 37.9 40.4 6.8 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 9.0 8.0 6.0 -0.3 46.6 47.1 6.5 8.4 10.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 7.8 6.8 4.8 -0.3 46.5 46.9 5.2 7.2 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 9.4 7.8 4.2 -0.7 40.3 42.1 7.1 8.8 10.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 7.0 7.4 6.9 0.6 57.6 56.9 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 8.6 6.9 4.1 -0.7 40.0 42.0 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 7.7 7.7 7.0 0.4 54.5 54.1 5.2 7.2 9.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 2.2 2.8 2.0 -0.9 36.1 39.2 2.5 3.9 5.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 8.6 7.8 6.1 -0.3 46.1 46.7 6.4 8.2 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 86 14 100 7.7 7.9 7.0 0.5 56.1 55.5 5.3 7.2 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 8.1 7.8 7.0 0.2 51.8 51.6 5.7 7.6 9.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 9.0 7.8 5.7 -0.4 44.3 45.3 6.6 8.4 10.0 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 7.7 6.8 4.9 -0.3 46.0 46.6 5.5 7.2 8.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 8.6 6.9 3.6 -0.8 37.0 39.7 6.6 8.0 9.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 8.0 7.5 5.8 -0.1 48.7 49.0 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 8.5 7.2 4.5 -0.5 44.3 45.2 5.7 7.9 9.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 2.2 3.1 3.3 -0.7 39.6 41.9 2.5 4.0 5.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 7.5 7.5 6.9 0.4 54.5 54.1 5.2 7.0 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------