***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.02.2015.-22.02.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.6 6.4 6.3 68.0 49.8 36.3 3.7 6.5 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 65 35 0 100 1.9 3.2 4.8 54.5 42.8 32.1 2.1 4.3 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 3.1 5.9 6.6 67.1 48.1 35.8 3.2 6.2 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 4.1 7.5 7.3 67.4 48.9 33.5 4.8 7.7 11.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 4.3 9.4 8.9 82.0 55.6 40.7 4.5 8.0 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 68 32 0 100 3.1 7.5 10.4 90.8 58.5 42.2 3.6 6.0 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.9 2.9 4.8 56.1 43.7 33.3 1.8 3.9 7.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 8.9 16.5 9.7 83.3 55.7 39.5 10.0 14.7 20.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 3.1 7.3 9.7 85.2 56.2 42.3 3.0 6.0 10.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.1 84.6 56.1 41.0 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.1 7.8 8.6 84.7 56.4 39.8 3.5 6.4 10.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 3.6 9.3 9.0 87.9 57.7 40.6 4.3 7.5 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 3.9 9.6 9.3 86.6 56.6 39.6 4.8 8.0 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.1 7.4 8.3 67.0 47.0 35.3 4.7 8.1 12.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.8 4.4 6.4 59.6 47.4 31.0 2.3 4.8 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 3.3 7.9 8.7 85.4 56.4 39.4 4.0 6.7 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 2.2 3.6 4.4 53.5 42.4 31.8 2.3 4.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.9 9.4 11.3 83.6 55.0 41.7 4.0 8.0 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 2.1 3.6 5.2 56.2 43.3 32.4 2.3 4.7 8.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 64 36 0 100 5.4 11.3 11.7 76.4 51.9 39.5 6.0 10.7 16.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.0 6.8 8.2 78.6 52.9 39.5 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 2.2 3.4 4.4 48.8 39.7 29.9 2.5 5.1 9.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 2.3 4.2 6.2 60.8 45.1 33.8 2.7 4.9 8.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.4 8.7 9.2 75.7 51.5 38.8 4.8 8.4 13.2 29 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.1 6.1 7.7 71.0 50.9 38.4 2.9 5.8 10.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 3.2 7.8 8.8 84.1 56.2 38.5 4.0 6.6 10.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 3.1 5.8 7.0 67.7 49.2 37.1 3.2 5.9 9.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.2 5.7 7.3 68.7 50.1 32.9 2.6 5.7 10.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 7.7 16.4 11.6 81.3 54.0 41.6 8.3 14.5 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.2 3.7 5.2 57.5 44.2 32.8 2.3 4.7 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------