***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.02.2015.-01.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.3 3.6 7.1 58.7 39.6 30.7 2.8 5.2 8.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 2.0 3.7 6.7 61.4 41.2 31.5 2.7 5.0 8.1 30 Becej 27400G00 69 31 0 100 2.5 4.5 7.5 63.4 42.5 32.1 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 3.5 7.0 8.8 74.4 48.4 36.5 4.0 7.4 11.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 2.8 5.0 8.9 71.2 45.9 35.0 3.1 5.7 9.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 3.7 7.7 11.0 89.2 55.6 43.5 3.5 6.5 10.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 73 27 0 100 1.9 3.6 6.7 62.1 41.9 32.4 2.4 4.8 8.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 5.4 9.6 10.1 78.2 48.5 37.6 6.0 10.0 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 2.4 4.1 8.9 66.8 43.0 33.1 2.7 5.2 8.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.2 10.0 71.4 44.7 34.7 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 2.6 5.0 8.8 76.9 48.4 36.6 2.8 5.3 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.6 7.8 9.0 82.3 51.9 39.5 3.8 7.3 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 3.5 7.6 9.8 83.6 52.7 41.1 3.9 7.0 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 2.9 5.8 9.4 65.8 44.1 32.4 3.6 7.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 2.6 8.1 8.8 84.3 54.9 39.8 2.8 6.6 12.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 60 40 0 100 3.0 6.2 9.2 83.9 52.4 40.3 3.0 5.8 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 2.0 3.9 6.5 63.8 43.3 33.5 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 2.4 4.4 11.0 70.1 44.9 34.6 2.7 5.3 8.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 74 26 0 100 2.2 4.0 6.9 61.3 41.8 31.4 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 3.0 5.9 12.8 75.7 47.2 37.7 3.3 6.4 10.8 29 Sjenica 27900G10 65 35 0 100 3.0 4.8 8.2 64.6 42.5 32.5 3.3 6.0 9.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 2.1 4.1 6.6 63.8 43.4 33.2 2.8 5.1 8.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.1 3.7 7.5 63.2 43.9 32.5 2.4 4.6 7.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 68 32 0 100 2.4 4.6 9.5 67.4 44.9 33.5 2.8 5.5 9.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 2.7 4.0 8.3 61.2 39.9 32.2 3.0 6.0 10.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.0 6.9 9.2 84.1 52.9 40.5 3.2 6.3 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.4 3.5 7.7 58.1 38.5 30.9 2.8 5.4 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.3 9.1 84.3 53.9 39.9 2.6 5.4 9.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 4.6 8.1 11.9 71.9 45.9 35.4 5.1 9.3 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 77 23 0 100 1.7 3.4 6.8 59.8 40.3 30.7 2.4 5.0 9.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------