***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 05.02.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.02.2015.-08.03.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 18.3 16.4 23.9 57.8 22.4 24.9 21.7 31.1 41.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 18.7 18.0 22.4 59.0 25.3 26.9 21.4 29.8 39.2 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 24.1 22.6 26.4 62.7 25.4 27.7 27.8 39.7 54.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 26.6 28.4 29.6 66.2 30.2 31.2 30.0 41.6 54.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 27.9 31.5 33.3 72.5 33.7 33.6 31.0 41.9 54.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 24.2 29.6 40.0 86.1 43.0 40.2 24.5 33.6 43.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 16.6 15.8 21.6 58.1 24.4 25.9 19.3 26.8 35.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 49.5 57.2 39.4 79.6 38.2 37.1 53.4 66.1 79.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 23.6 26.2 34.1 71.7 32.3 32.6 26.6 36.0 46.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 30.2 35.8 39.5 77.5 36.4 35.9 33.4 44.2 55.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 21.5 26.0 33.5 76.6 36.4 35.3 24.2 34.2 45.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 27.3 33.4 34.7 80.8 39.4 37.2 29.8 39.8 50.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 27.8 33.9 36.4 81.0 38.8 37.0 30.6 40.5 51.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 37.4 38.8 36.7 71.2 31.3 32.9 40.0 52.1 65.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 67 33 0 100 16.7 19.7 27.7 66.1 33.2 32.6 19.4 32.9 50.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 22.7 27.9 34.2 79.9 38.6 36.7 25.1 34.4 45.0 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 18.3 18.3 21.8 61.0 27.2 27.8 20.8 28.2 36.7 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 27.2 33.3 44.9 79.4 38.1 37.3 30.4 40.4 51.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 22.8 21.9 23.8 60.7 25.8 27.7 25.3 33.7 43.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 65 35 0 100 29.6 35.2 49.7 77.1 36.4 36.2 32.9 44.5 57.6 29 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 22.6 22.7 29.3 65.7 28.0 29.3 25.8 37.0 50.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 19.5 19.8 23.0 61.0 26.9 28.0 22.4 30.3 38.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 19.7 18.8 27.3 64.8 27.5 29.3 21.5 29.3 38.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 31.0 33.9 37.3 73.4 33.4 34.1 33.7 44.8 57.5 29 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 20.0 19.6 29.3 61.6 25.0 26.9 24.8 37.3 52.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 24.9 29.6 35.0 80.8 38.4 37.0 27.1 35.0 43.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 18.8 16.9 26.2 57.8 22.0 24.5 22.9 32.8 44.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 19.2 22.0 30.2 71.1 34.5 34.1 21.2 33.5 48.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 47.7 56.1 48.0 80.1 38.9 38.0 51.1 65.6 81.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 20.6 18.8 22.5 57.6 23.6 25.7 23.6 32.4 42.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------