***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 06.02.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.02.2014.-16.02.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 3.9 3.4 6.0 90.2 89.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.3 2.6 5.5 87.5 86.9 -4.6 -2.7 -0.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 2.6 4.6 2.9 5.7 89.8 89.3 -2.4 -0.6 1.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 -2.7 -2.3 -1.0 3.8 80.8 80.4 -8.5 -6.4 -4.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 -0.1 1.6 1.0 5.3 88.8 88.3 -4.6 -3.0 -1.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 -1.0 0.7 -0.7 5.5 89.2 89.1 -5.3 -3.7 -2.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 0.7 2.3 2.7 5.7 87.8 87.3 -4.2 -2.4 -0.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 -5.5 -3.5 -0.1 5.8 89.5 89.2 -10.3 -8.6 -6.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 0.8 2.9 1.7 5.5 89.9 89.5 -4.2 -2.4 -0.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 0.4 2.2 0.6 5.8 90.1 89.7 -3.9 -2.4 -0.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.8 0.7 5.4 88.8 88.5 -4.1 -2.6 -1.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 -1.1 0.5 0.5 5.7 89.3 89.0 -5.3 -3.8 -2.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 -0.3 1.3 0.3 5.6 89.2 89.0 -4.5 -2.9 -1.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 0.9 2.5 1.5 5.3 88.7 88.1 -3.6 -2.0 -0.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 19 81 100 0.3 0.1 -1.2 2.5 71.2 70.9 -3.8 -2.1 -0.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.0 0.2 5.2 88.2 87.9 -3.5 -2.0 -0.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 0.5 1.8 2.2 5.1 86.3 85.7 -4.4 -2.7 -1.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 -1.8 -0.1 -0.1 5.8 90.1 89.6 -5.9 -4.4 -3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 0.6 2.3 2.5 5.3 87.8 87.3 -4.8 -2.8 -1.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 -4.6 -2.2 -1.3 6.1 91.9 91.1 -9.4 -7.6 -6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 0.5 2.5 2.8 5.7 89.8 89.4 -4.3 -2.6 -0.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 0.2 1.6 2.1 5.0 86.4 85.8 -4.7 -2.9 -1.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 0.1 1.6 2.2 5.2 88.0 87.5 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 0.0 1.7 1.3 5.3 88.9 88.4 -4.5 -2.9 -1.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 0.3 1.8 1.7 5.3 88.1 87.8 -4.1 -2.5 -1.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 -0.1 1.5 0.3 5.7 90.0 89.8 -4.0 -2.6 -1.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 1.2 3.5 2.7 5.9 89.9 89.5 -4.1 -2.2 -0.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 6 94 100 -0.5 -0.3 -0.8 3.5 78.4 78.1 -5.1 -3.4 -1.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 1 99 100 -2.0 0.2 -0.6 5.7 90.5 89.8 -7.0 -5.2 -3.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 1.0 2.8 2.9 5.6 88.4 87.9 -4.1 -2.3 -0.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------